The US Economy Is Good, Bad And Ugly
There was good news, bad news and ugly news in the preliminary IHS Markit PMIs for the US on Monday.
The good news is, the flash read on US manufacturing beat estimates, printing 51 versus the 50.3 economists were looking for. That's a relief considering ISM fell into contraction in August and, more germane on Monday, considering how bad things looked across the pond.
The bad news is, the services gauge missed, printing 50.9 versus expectations for 51.4. Here's Chris Williamson, Chief Business
And while inverted spread headlines are so last month, note the 3 mo to 3 mo forward 6 qtr spread – the “near term forward spread” found by Fed researchers to be more predictive of recessions that either the 3m-10y or 2y-10y spreads – remains quite inverted, as best I can tell.
Meanwhile, all the used car salesmen that pass through CNBC’s studios continue to spew nonsense about how great SPX will do over the next 12-18 months…