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The US Economy Is Good, Bad And Ugly
There was good news, bad news and ugly news in the preliminary IHS Markit PMIs for the US on Monday.
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And while inverted spread headlines are so last month, note the 3 mo to 3 mo forward 6 qtr spread – the “near term forward spread” found by Fed researchers to be more predictive of recessions that either the 3m-10y or 2y-10y spreads – remains quite inverted, as best I can tell.
Meanwhile, all the used car salesmen that pass through CNBC’s studios continue to spew nonsense about how great SPX will do over the next 12-18 months…