Back on June 15, Donald Trump made a bombastic prediction.
“If anyone but me takes over in 2020, there will be a Market Crash the likes of which has not been seen before!”, the president shouted, at nobody in particular.
Trump is famous for claiming that anything associated with him is “unlike anything anyone has ever witnessed.†He’s also known to accidentally describe his presidency in authoritarian terms. That stock market tweet (delivered out of the blue on a random Saturday) checked both boxes.
Read more: Trump Promises Biblical Stock Market Crash If ‘Anyone But Him Takes Over’ America
On Wednesday, the president made a similar claim about the economy which, as many market participants tend to forget, is not synonymous with the S&P 500.
“If I hadn’t won the 2016 Election, we would be in a Great Recession/Depression right now”, Trump declared, without presenting any supporting evidence.
He proceeded to employ some of the GOP’s trademark fearmongering about the 2020 Democratic field. “The people I saw on stage last night, & you can add in Sleepy Joe, Harris, & the rest, will lead us into an economic sinkhole the likes of which we have never seen before”, Trump said.
So, that’s the lie. Now, “let’s speak truth” (to quote Kamala).
There is nothing “miraculous” about Trump’s economy. Nothing. Are things going well? Yes. Is there anything (anything at all) anomalous about the GDP numbers Trump has put up? No. Let’s play “spot the miracle”:
Do you see an economic miracle over there on the right-hand side? No? That’s because there hasn’t been one.
On Friday, the advance read on Q2 GDP showed the economy expanding at a 2.1% annualized clip. Good, to be sure. But “tremendous”, “big league” or any other superlative the White House would be inclined to employ in the service of talking up Trump’s purported accomplishments need not apply. In fact, 2018’s 3% growth “miracle†was wiped off the board when the updated figures showed the economy expanded 2.5% on a Q4-over-Q4 basis last year.
As far as the administration’s insistence on the notion that the economy can grow 3% in perpetuity, that too is a myth. In fact, not a single professional forecast out of more than four dozen sees the US economy expanding at 3% this year or next.
(Goldman)
Let that sink it: Trump, his advisers and sycophants are the only people on the planet worth mentioning that believe in the 3% growth story.
Of course, when he’s proven wrong (and again, it turns out the economy didn’t actually grow at 3% last year, so he’s already been proven wrong once) he’ll just blame somebody else, namely the Fed.
“Q2 GDP Up 2.1%â€, Trump tweeted on Friday. “Not bad considering we have the very heavy weight of the Federal Reserve anchor wrapped around our neckâ€.
Larry Kudlow concurred. “Look, I think you know, to keep this thing going in the face of severe monetary tightening, I think it’s almost a miracle that the economy is growing as rapidly as it is”, he told his former colleagues at CNBC last week.
It’s a “miracle” all right. A “miracle” the country isn’t completely bankrupt considering it’s being run by a man who, in 1991, singlehandedly accounted for fully 1% of all the losses the I.R.S. reported had been declared by individual taxpayers that year.
Alright,
Here we go. The fear mongering begins in earnest. Expected this.
By the time the general rolls around next year, the Fearometer will be pegged hard right. The sad part is that the vast majority of the “Undecideds” will have bought into this bullshit. With the capacity for critical thing in serious decline among the electorate, I will not be surprised by anything.
My hope is that a strong Dem candidate will emerge that makes the stupidity of Trump obvious, and the happen to have a viable set of policies that energizes people. The Dems need to cull the current herd of candidates fast or find someone who is head and shoulders above the crowd including Trump.
Let’s hope.
My mother told me yesterday that Trump is the best president in modern history when it comes to managing money for the country….and that none of the past and current presidential candidates would be able to handle money as well as he does…
As the deficit explodes and the US pays the most interest in history. the best chart ever is plotting the budget deficit with the unemployment rate with one of the two axes inverted. it’s absolutely hilarious
I have a mother and sister like Brian K. All the charts in the world won’t matter.
I was thinking the exact same thing about the GOPer goose-steppers: charts and facts require dialectical cognizance and common sense – neither a hallmark of cognitively dissonant cults.
Perception vs Reality. That is what it is all about. The vast majority of people have no clue about macro econ (and even fewer understand the measurement issues). If they are told by CNN or Fox or Trump the economy is strong (whether it is or isn’t) they believe it if they still have a job, got a raise, and see the stock market up.
The Obama real economy vs the Trump economy is not all that different in actuality but hugely differently perceived. (Factoring stimulus vs late cycle/full employment).
Trump is a total liar but people believe in and trust him based on perception. Astonishing since he is a total fraud in reality but he created am image far from reality. Until people lose their jobs they will continue to believe his “alternative facts”.
And farmer sentiment suggest job/wealth loss may not even change the perception…………..