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Collapsing Chicago Factory Gauge Brings Out The Recession Calls

If you thought last month was bad...

If you thought last month was bad...
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5 comments on “Collapsing Chicago Factory Gauge Brings Out The Recession Calls

  1. The dichotomy between consumer-related indicators and manufacturing/trade/transport-related indicators is striking. Most of the former are positive and/or improving/stable: consumer spending, unemployment, wage inflation, confidence, etc. Most of the latter are negative and/or deteriorating: PMI, freight loadings, capital spending, inventories, etc. It would be interesting to see how often these two aspects of the economy diverge and the implications.

    • Isn’t the dichotomy you note just a reflection of the decades-long evolution of the U.S. economy from an industrial manufacturing economy to a services/knowledge economy?

      • No, because I’m referencing changes to these indicators over the relatively near term (i.e. cyclical not secular).

      • By the way, a convenient source for all sorts of charts and data is https://www.yardeni.com/ the website of Ed Yardeni, formerly strategist or economist (I can’t recall which) at Deutsche Bank’s i-bank arm.

    • I for a long time have had misgivings over the facts and the intended perceptions that has created this scenario that seems unable to resolve itself.
      H….. speaks to this in so many of his posts but the approach is coming from a different angle and a different background….Levels of desperation in the system are dictating eventual outcomes that for hundreds if not thousands of years have repeated themselves.. The only things that are different are the tools in our toolbox and man’s potential to obscure what used to be reality.

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