This Bond Love Affair Is ‘Combustible’ And It ‘Could Get Weird’, Nomura’s McElligott Warns
It's the damndest thing.
The leader of the free world has a super hero name for himself and it's "Tariff Man", a state of affairs you'd think would be conducive to inflation. As it happens, Tariff Man has a penchant for pro-cyclical fiscal policy that borders on the fanatical. Again, that should be conducive to inflation, as piling fiscal stimulus atop a late-cycle dynamic when unemployment is parked at a five-decade nadir is tempting fate, assuming the Phillips curve is "just sleeping" (and no
Most objective measures show the US economy is slowing. That is the elephant in the room. Technicals may say it is overbought but sometimes technicians miss the big picture. I believe this is one of those times. Not to say, that we may get a short term bounce in yields, but the tide seems to be pointing to lower yields for a time horizon longer than a trader’s time horizon.
It would be so much better if more than 1 Republican Senator opted to try to save the party instead of letting the Donald ruin it for years to come.
Kolanovic sees a “Trump collar” on the stock market. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-05-24/jpmorgan-s-kolanovic-sees-a-trump-collar-on-u-s-stock-market?srnd=premium . Probably the bond market too. However, what happens when the “Twitter-leash” snaps, and the formerly friendly market poodle becomes a Hound of the Baskervilles? I give us until perhaps July/August to get our affairs in order…despite what Trump says.
Incidentally, there’s more on the Kolanovic “Trump collar” here: https://heisenbergreport.com/2019/05/16/marko-kolanovic-the-trump-put-is-3-4-out-of-the-money/