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What’s Next In The US-China Trade Standoff?

"It’s very simple!"

"It’s very simple!"
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13 comments on “What’s Next In The US-China Trade Standoff?

  1. Here’s another weapon China has: the ability to frustrate Trump’s “foreign policy” goals. It can seriously undermine the sanctions on Iran, and it’s no coincidence that North Korea lobbed a few missiles into the ocean over the last few weeks.

    And this is the key point: “Obviously, Beijing can’t simply stand down and let Trump run roughshod over the whole process.” Either Trump offers a weak deal, or there is no deal. It’s looking increasingly like the latter. China will probably only need to ride out the storm for two years, which ultimately it can do.

    • Not only “can do”, but when I read how China backtracked so much, I thought that’s already what they’ve decided to do.

      • They decided a year ago. They were never going to give Trump anything near the kind of deal he wanted. They’ve just been stalling to minimize their fallout period and push the American maximum pain point closer to the election.

        • The Chinese were never going to give trump what he wanted because what he was asking for is delusional. The only question was if the initial ask from the US was a bit of gamesmanship and they would eventually settle on a more reasonable deal.

          It wouldn’t surprise me if the Chinese just told the US everything they wanted to hear with the idea of never agreeing to it.

    • Thanks for posting my thoughts, exactly.

    • Also, once Xi made his office in-terminate, the clock is on his side.

  2. Are the Chinese banking on the SPX crashing 10%? If so, Friday’s market reaction to Tariff Fail is not encouraging. For Trump it is all about the Donald J Trump industrial average. If the right tail risk is more likely than the left there is no incentive to be reasonable. The single things that the highly polarized US politic agrees is they all don’t trust China. Trump owns the China issue. If stocks crash then it hurts Trump and he will deal, but if not, there is nothing that motivates him. Moreover, since its the Trump issue, it works for him to berate the Chinese into the 2020 election. It is all binary. He will also own the China issue if the dire impacts on the global economy manifest over the coming months

  3. Will Apple suddenly lose favor in China?

    • Apple is in big trouble. Well, for a while, during the transition from a device company to an entertainment company. And, yes, the China market will start to wain for all American brands as the Chinese public already believes we are in a cold war and thus feel victimized by the US.

  4. Harvey Darrow Cotton

    It makes zero sense after the Chinese to change domestic law and alter their entire development model in exchange for any Trump promise or American government commitment. Not after leaving the Paris Climate Accord. Not after leaving the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action. Not after ignoring their security guarantee to Ukraine or unilateral actions in regard to Israel and the occupied territories. Trump will either lose, or he will alter the deal. He has precisely zero credibility.

  5. Trump plays for 2020. China plays for 2100. They have totally different time horizons for winning.

  6. Trump has two pair but thinks he’s got a full house. If he escalates the trade war, the economy and the markets tank and his “greatest economy ever” claim is as meaningful as all the other BS he has spewed over the last two years. In a full-on-trade-war tanking-economy scenario, his 72,000-vote margin of victory in three key states (Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin) goes poof and he’s a one-term president. But that won’t happen because Trump, like all bullies, is a coward and will cave. Of course, he’ll claim victory and his idiot followers will believe him. ‘Merica.

  7. Anonymous

    Why does he encourage US companies to manufacture locally to avoid tariffs when China is paying all those tariff billions into the treasury anyway?

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