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China May Have Saved Itself, But What About The Rest Of Us?
There was more incrementally good news out of China on Saturday.
Industrial firms' profits jumped 1
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Has China been doing much to stimulate outside of the RRR cuts? You’ve written in the past about the variety of levers that it has, but I’m not familiar with the full spectrum. And, how does current stimulus compare with the 2012 and 2015 episodes?
Yes, they’ve rolled out all manner of fiscal stimulus measures — some targeted, some more indiscriminate (just scroll through these: https://heisenbergreport.com/?s=china+fiscal ).
keeping track of them all (and parsing what’s real and what’s rumor/trial balloon/etc.) is almost a full-time job on its own. and when you think about liquidity and the stance of monetary policy, you have to think about it as something that is, basically, fine-tuned every, single day. tracking what the PBoC is doing with OMOs is key, as is watching to see how they go about smoothing things out when previous lending ops come due (are they essentially rolling them with more MLF and/or a combination of new lending and short-term repos?, etc.) keeping apprised of this isn’t for the faint of heart, but depending on who you are, it’s critical