On The Edge Of Recession? A Handy Pocket Guide
Early Monday, we brought you some highlights from the latest edition of the National Association for Business Economics' semiannual survey, which showed three-fourths of panelists expect a recession by the end of 2021.
That, we noted, was generally consistent with some of the more cautious takes from Wall Street, where, despite strategists' penchant for steering clear of recession calls, economists are having a harder and harder time justifying the contention that the expansion still has legs.
these guys are going all the way out to end of 2021 to call a recession. What are your own estimates telling you heisenberg?
you won’t need a recession for things to feel ugly. nominal GDP growth lower than 4% trending towards 3% will all that is needed to start feeling the pinch. at 3% nominal, in a highly leveraged economy, debt will feel onerous, credit spreads will widen and lending will rapidly slow- and the economy will be highly vulnerable to a shock. many of the pundits are overly optimistic about first quarter growth and inflation is already heading to 1.5%.