The Decision Tree: Why The Odds Of Permanent Tariffs Are 75/25
Two weeks ago, in "Cheshire Cat’s Smile: ‘What Is The Fed Worried About?’", I regaled readers with some of my patented island anecdotes on the way to warning folks about the perils associated with trying to discuss the Phillips curve at local bars.
Somehow, I managed to segue from that into a some excerpts from what, at the time, was the latest from Deutsche Bank's brilliant Aleksandar Kocic who, three Fridays ago, delivered a Phillips curve history lesson complete with the following colo
Depending on the elections’ outcome, the tariff story can be dialed up or down. A strong tactical bias would imply that current rhetoric behind tariffs can be dialed down under more favorable political circumstances. Tactical bias changes across the elections — only if Republican victory is certain does it remain unchanged. Assuming that the bias is purely tactical, it can change to strategic, used to blame Democrats if they win.
If tariffs are strategic, reflecting a shift towards a change in global economic policies, Trump will blame Democrats 100 times a day for all shit he does until the election of 2020, claiming that if the people would just get rid of those damn Democrats, he and the Republicans will put everything right if the people would just come to their senses and retake the congress and re-elect him president again.
Never tell me the odds!
The Phillip’s curve is in the same bucket as efficient market hypothesis and the efficient frontier in investing. Nice academic concepts that help you form a rudimentary understanding of markets and trade offs. In the real world we live in we are lucky if the work 50% of the time. On the election topic, tune out polls. Turn out will determine the results, which could go anywhere.
Vote, folks vote. If you want what we have right now keep voting for republicans and kiss this “covfefe’s” ass as we sink further into the abyss. Jobs are fleeting at best and used as a prop for koolaid drinking believers that everything is just grand. When our economy turns over and it will (always does), we will need some cool heads to prevail because this one will be a doozy debt induced bomb.
If not vote everyone republicans and democrats out that don’t want to actually govern the whole country, good and bad, rich or poor, smart or dumb, straight or gay, religious and atheist alike. Our congress is NOT voted to their jobs for billionaire trolls, corporate welfare addicts or right or left wing crazies. We need some people women and maybe some men who want to stop this nonsense (republicans lost in their own delusion) and start governing so we can progress forward and not back to the “Beaver Cleaver 1950’s”.
What about the possibility that the Democrats take control of both the House AND the Senate and take away Presidential/Executive Branch ability to impose Trade Tariffs without Congressional approval? Wishful thinking? Which would be more likely…that or impeachment?