Jeremy Siegel just “wants to make one thing clear” and that one thing is this: he’s “not a bear”.
Now you’d think that’s something Jeremy Siegel wouldn’t have to clarify because you know, it’s Jeremy Siegel and all, but he felt the need to add that when speaking to CNBC earlier this week, because believe it or not, he sees choppy waters ahead. Or what counts as “choppy waters” for him.
See, the thing he wants you to understand is that when the Fed is running down the balance sheet and Treasury supply is picking up thanks to Donald Trump’s decision to pile fiscal stimulus atop an economy at full employment, it likely means rates are going to rise and that, according to Siegel (and pretty much everyone else), is going to be trouble at some point.
“Good” people (like Jeff Gundlach) disagree as to what the number on 10s is, but for Siegel it’s 3.25%.
“That will give stocks a pause in 2018,” he said, adding that “these gains that people are talking about – 10% to 15% a year this year and maybe next year, I just don’t think they’re going to be realized.”
Oh Jesus, folks – when you lose Jeremy.
Just to be clear, I don’t give a good goddamn what Siegel says, but in light of Shiller’s recent comments and because some of you people are enamored by these big names, I thought I’d “wave something shiny in front of you monkeys” (to quote Melissa McCarthy’s Sean Spicer). Enjoy…
[Wharton’s Jeremy Siegel warns good earnings and higher rates are on collision course from CNBC]
