I’m not sure if you were reading the Syria headlines as bullish for crude or not, and I’m not sure if you’re in the camp who thinks there should be a “Bolton premium” in oil prices to reflect the very real possibility that Trump’s decision to replace H.R. McMaster with one of the most notorious foreign policy hawks in modern U.S. history likely raises the risk of more intervention in the Mideast no matter what Trump says at rallies about pulling out “very soon”, but if you were looking for a reason to be bullish on oil, here’s one:
- SAUDI ARABIA IS SAID TO SIGNAL AMBITION FOR $80 OIL PRICE
This is obviously aimed at getting the best possible valuation for Aramco ahead of the IPO (or at least you’d think that has something to do with it) and it’s probably also tied to folks trying to figure out how to finance some of MbS’s ambitious plans.
Here’s the reaction:
Oil was already on the rise after Xi’s speech buoyed risk assets overnight.
As you’re no doubt aware, the threat of a global trade war raises the specter of a deceleration in growth that’s just as “synchronous” (to employ everyone’s favorite buzzword from the Goldilocks meme) as the upturn was in 2017. That would invariably weigh on the demand side of the equation for crude.
On the supply side, it’s the same old story. Record U.S. production is pushing back against OPEC’s prolonged efforts to balance the market with production cuts.
So unless this is just going to be the same exercise in running up the down escalator that’s been going on for years and unless tighter monetary policy is finally going to allow capital markets to purge uneconomic production stateside, there’s going to need to be a concerted effort on “someone’s” part to get prices much higher.
And hey, who better than the Saudis, right?