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Seth Golden Doubles Down After XIV Blowup, Bets $600,000 VIX Will Fall
Ok, I admit it. Guilty as charged, dammit. I was a little hard on Seth Golden, the former (and probably future) manager at a local Target who quit his job to become a full-time vol. seller from his living room in Ocala, Florida.
Seth became the poster child for the retail short vol. trade when he inexplicably agreed to be profiled in an extremely unfortunate piece that appeared in the New York Times on August 28, 2017. Seth - and a lot of folks like him - were able to log triple-digit returns
It seems that Seth’s 12m portfolio suddenly shrunk to 3m. That still should be enough to buy a decent computer.
i will stay a little hedged–long vixx 1/5 position.
i did BTFD–Uff.
Mr Heisenberg,
You have a lot of fun suggesting Seth will end up back at Target ( if they will take him) but the post indicates he still has a portfolio of $3 Million of which he has wagered $600k on a continued vix decline. Depending on where he entered the short vix trade on Tuesday, he was highly likely to be profitable by Wednesday and perhaps even by Friday if he was still in the trade. Historically vix does not stay above 30 for long, but even if he loses the $600k completely, he will be left enough to “go fishing” for the rest of his life in reasonable comfort if he should so choose. So perhaps your disparagements of him are premature.
Having said this, I much enjoy your commentary and usually find it to be educational and enlightening
AlorChip, that’s not how short selling works. You can lose more than your initial investment.
Yes, I know that and if Vix goes back up and if he is pig headed and remains in the trade, or even if it spikes up again too quickly for him to close his position, he may lose more than his new position very quickly, maybe a lot more. But so far vix is declining, down almost 12% today and so I suspect he is probably profitable. It is too early for Mr. Heisenberg to send him back to Target. Even if he loses twice his new investment he is still left with a nice nest egg for most people. But he certainly needs to know “when to fold em.”
I think your articles are great, but I think this is pretty condescending towards small retail traders who’re trying to grow their accounts. The guy made a killing off the short vol trade, and deserves some credit for that. Most small retail plebs are buying AAPL and holding it in the hope that it keeps mooning. Absent insider information, the only way you can really make bank is by taking inordinate amount of risk on the right trades.
Yeah, well, that doesn’t make it any less funny. What you’ll discover in these pages is that no one is immune from mockery – I mock myself all the time, for instance. So if I’m going to make fun of myself on my own site, then I don’t know what makes you think anyone else is off limits.