Here’s what we said this morning before the jobs number hit:
Ok, one more hurdle to clear before everyone can put this week in the books and head off to the Apple store or the bar, with the latter being far preferable.
Actually they’ll be more econ after jobs, but the tone for the dollar and yields will be set by 9 and after that, the algos will take the reins.
We’d generally stand by that assessment, but it’s worth noting that the dollar has now recouped the entirety of the dip engendered by the payrolls/ AHE miss. Treasurys also faded their post-jobs rally.
Obviously, the catalyst is ISM, with the non-manufacturing index printing 60.1 in October, well ahead of 58.5 consensus. Here’s the breakdown:
- Composite highest since August 2005
- Business activity rose to 62.2 vs 61.3 prior month
- New orders fell to 62.8 vs 63.0
- Employment rose to 57.5 vs 56.8
- Supplier deliveries unchanged at 58.0 vs 58.0
- Inventory change rose to 52.5 vs 51.5
- Prices paid fell to 62.7 vs 66.3
- Backlog of orders fell to 53.5 vs 56
- New export orders rose to 60.0 vs 56.0
- Imports unchanged at 52.0 vs 52.0
- Inventory sentiment rose to 61.0 vs 58.5
And here’s where things stand on the dollar and yields:
Is it just me, or have enthusiastic survey results consistently failed to predict generally mediocre growth since the election?