Minksy 2017.
On of the key themes running through some of the macro research of late is the extent to which the "trigger" for a disorderly unwind of the prevailing dynamic that's perpetuating the self-feeding loops that sustain the short vol. trade and push risk assets to ever loftier levels will come from a combination of fiscal spending and the sudden emergence of inflation.
Essentially, the idea is that should central banks find themselves caught offsides - i.e. woefully and hopelessly behind the curve -
Good article………..but what it will come down to is the gross overvaluation of assets and mountain of debt, worldwide, that is supporting asset prices.
After the ability/access to credit diminishes, assets will collapse under their own weight, IMO.
… or it’s not an overvaluation of assets, but rather the rapid devaluation of currencies. Asset prices could thus “rise” much further, as historically, the way that governments have resolved sovereign debt crises – and we are living in the era of the largest ever – has been an inflationary spiral to devalue the debt, not a deflationary collapse in which the debt burden increases. That’s why you see a digital currency BTC soar above $5000 this year. Gold could have soared too, had they not securitized it last decade. The central planners however overlooked bitcoin as it was new and government isn’t the sharpest tool in the box.