10Y dollar fed inflation

Make Bad Data Great Again! CPI Edition


As soon as the CPI print hit (and missed), our assessment was simple:

Buy stocks!!!

And for those who have wisely chosen not subject themselves to our profane Twitter feed, here’s the expanded version:

It’s early yet, but we just wanted to remind anyone who might still be under the impression that this isn’t all about central bank expectations what’s really going on.


Here’s the dollar and yields (yellow is CPI):


And here’s futs (again, yellow is CPI):


Any questions?

“Bad” data is actually “good” data for risk assets and when it comes to “bad” data, no “bad” data is “better” than a CPI miss, because that gives the Fed a reason to be dovish. Unless of course they write it off as “transitory” in an effort to covertly curb the very same dynamic that makes equity futs jump on lackluster econ.


And don’t ask any questions…



4 comments on “Make Bad Data Great Again! CPI Edition

  1. what are the Dec odds of a hike now?

  2. If the CPI figure had been good, stocks would have gone up (yay economy is doing well), CPI figure bad, stocks go up (less interest rate hikes) – just mental.

  3. Nuts. True inflation as per shadow stats is actually many times more than what the lying US gov’t states.

    And a 0.001 miss on CPI is a rounding error. For cripes sake, 2.2% inflation is huge. What happened to the objective of currency stability, 0% inflation?… Before the US went snowflake-soft and got on its express lane to becoming a failed state.

    FACT: Germany has a larger data miss on inflation and the euro surged anyway. Then US CPI almost hits its (high) expectation and the dollar continues its epic, historic crash. Even tho US inflation is soaring above Europe’s.

    Answer: Dollar Bear market dude. US Stocks bear market too, as the crashing dollar is causing US stocks to tumble persistently all year in terms of almost every other currency. US assets continue to rank among the world’s worst. Except most in the US seem too dumb or brainwashed by BS MSM to have a clue about it.

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