Geopolitical Rubber (Bullet) Hits The Road: Catalonia Shocks Market

Ok, listen: the Catalonia “situation” (where “situation” means Spain is coming apart at the seams) isn’t getting any better.

“The Spanish government is arresting political opponents, influencing the media, blocking Internet sites,” Catalan President Carles Puigdemont told Germany’s Bild on Wednesday, before asking “What is that, other than an authoritarian state?

Well, duly noted, but you know, this one of those “what did you expect?” type of deals. It’s not like Madrid didn’t tell the entire world exactly what was going to happen if this went forward. And if you’ve followed this saga for the past several years, you know Spain isn’t predisposed to sitting idly by.

That certainly doesn’t excuse a brutal crackdown on people exercising their right to self-determination. It’s just to say that I’m not sure where the incredulity comes from.

Anyway, in case things still weren’t clear enough, Puigdemont added this (he told BBC the same thing last night):

We will declare our independence within 48 hours [from the time the votes are fully counted] I already now feel like the president of a free country in which millions of people have taken an important decision.

According to El Pais, Monday is the day:

The Bureau and the Committee of Spokesmen of the Catalan Parliament have met to agree on the date and agenda of the next plenary, the first after the illegal referendum. Junts pel Yes and CUP have proposed that it be on Monday and include as a single point the appearance of Carles Puigdemont  to evaluate the results and detail their “effects”, although other points may be included.

Needless to say, all of this has weighed on Spanish equities which are down nearly 3% so far this week:

IBEX

And as far as yields go, we’re back to March levels (so levels last seen before Macron supposedly relegated E.U. breakup risk to the dustbin of history):

SpainYields

Finally, have a look at yields on 2020 debt from Catalonia versus Spain where the spread is the widest in a year:

SpainVsCatlonia

You can draw your own conclusions here, but as Jasper Lawler, head of research at London Capital Group, put it in a note out Wednesday, “the resolve of regional officials in Catalonia to announce independence from Spain has caught markets off guard.”

Right. Will this be the moment when the rubber (bullet) finally hits the road in terms of geopolitical risk finally spilling over into markets? Or is this just another bump in that all-too-familiar road to new highs for global equities?

If Puigdemont is to be believed, we’ll find out in a matter of days.

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3 thoughts on “Geopolitical Rubber (Bullet) Hits The Road: Catalonia Shocks Market

  1. Absolutely nothing..as in ZERO..will come from Catalonia (except in the longer term…10-15 years)…Catalonia has no EU nation support and does not have a populace that will fight a guerrilla insurgency to pressure Spain. Spain has approx 150,000 police+army it can use against a regional Catalonian police force of approx 17,000.

    If the Catalonians are serious about kicking ass and obtaining a separate state they should adopt 20 or 30 thousand Kurds..Kurds can fight and are not fazed by battle or dying for what they believe in…I doubt they are in the habit taking many midday siestas. Every Kurd soldier is worth least 10 Spaniards.

    1. lol. fair points, all. but i’m not sure anyone is thinking about this in terms of “how many Spaniards equals one Kurd?”

  2. The government in Madrid as even the Spanish King are not willing to talk with the Catalonian leaders. In fact they do not look for a solution but want to push the Catalonians to obey the laws made by the Spanish majority short after Franco wasn’t anymore the dictator of Spain. These laws have to be revised, but the Spanish never did want serious talks with the Catalonians. That is in fact the reason the Catalonians want independence. They feel as second class citizens. And they are. Even when they work harder and better than the Spanish, that can be proven by facts. So the Spanish HIDE themselves behind the law, but they mean power and that is Police, Army, Justice. If there will not be an intervention by the EU the chance is very big it will become real bloody. So this is Europe 2017, and nobody is doing anything.
    I tell you something interesting, History is repeating, in 1568 the catholic Spanish tried to do the same with the protestant Netherlands, hiding themselves behind laws they made and than using terrible force until 1648. Finally the Spanish had to give up.

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