Meanwhile, from the file marked “evidence that the equity euphoria is completely out of control”…
As you’re acutely aware, the S&P just logged its eighth consecutive quarterly gain and on Monday, we got off to green start for Q4. It goes without saying that valuations are stratospheric and as our friend Kevin Muir (who yesterday stuck his neck out and called the top) noted bright and early this morning, the synchronized upturn in global manufacturing is paradoxically not bullish for one very simple reason:
Contrary to popular belief, this is not good for stocks. CB's are going to put away their blue tickets and leave stocks up here on their own https://t.co/qoso3XuqMp
— Kevin Muir (@kevinmuir) October 3, 2017
Throw in the possibility of a Kevin Warsh-led Fed (see here) and you’ve got a recipe for disaster or if not disaster, at least a recipe for the euphoria to morph into something that more closely resembles reality.
Well, just a day after SocGen noted that when it comes to global equities, “these go to 11,” Deutsche Bank is out documenting what they’re calling “a few remarkable stats for the S&P 500 that deserve more attention.” Here’s one of those stats:
2017 has now seen every month this year experience a positive total return (including reinvested dividends) for the index. This has only been equalled in 1995 where the first 9 months of the year also saw such an occurrence. Apart from 1995 and 2017, in the 90 years for which we have data we’ve not previously got beyond July before a negative total return month has arrived.
Further, DB reminds you that “September also marked the 11th month without a negative total return. The longest such streak ever is 12 months. Which means that “if October also sees a positive total return it will mark the joint longest such run in nearly 90 years of data.“
