‘If You Invest Now’ There Is A One Third Chance You Will Lose 20% Within 2 Years

‘If You Invest Now’ There Is A One Third Chance You Will Lose 20% Within 2 Years

Earlier this week, we brought you Goldman's "Famous 5" bear market indicators which, in combination, "tend to move in a particular way in the build-up to a bear market." Those 5 indicators are listed below along with short excerpts from the bank's accompanying color: 1. Unemployment — rising unemployment tends to be a good indicator of recession: unemployment has risen prior to every post-war recession in the US. The combination of cycle low unemployment and high valuations does tend to be f
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3 thoughts on “‘If You Invest Now’ There Is A One Third Chance You Will Lose 20% Within 2 Years

  1. US assets suck.

    Many east Asian emerging equities have been on fire all year with room to go higher yet.

    Eurostoxx, down for 5 months in Euro terms but up in terms of the hapless POS dollar, finally broke their downward trend this week. If/when the Euro bid cools, expect a surge in eurostoxx.

    Bottom line: stay long european & east-asian equities against US equities.

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