Cyclicality…
Economic sensitivity…
Leading indicator…
“It’s probably nothing”…
Bonus:
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Cyclicality…
Economic sensitivity…
Leading indicator…
“It’s probably nothing”…
Bonus:
You must be logged in to post a comment.
I looked and you are right probably no-thing……..well.
ironically, the way this market is, it probably will turn out to be nothing.
It may be a reflection of research received by CALPERS, et. al. SO it is a bit more than nothing, since it is a substantial divergence.
Looking at the make up of XTN there is a significant exposure to the price of fuel (trucking, shipping, airlines). As fuel price increases, driven by underlying oil price rally, these businesses will do less well. There is a very rough inverse correlation to USO but that is a rough and ready comparison. Ideally you would compare to a basket of refined products to nail down the correlation to fuel price movement. Is this indicating that when oil price rises, economic growth reduces/stagnates and the transportation sector is the canary in the coal mine?