Earlier, we brought you some excerpts and visuals from what one might call Goldman’s “magnum vol-pus” on the low vol. regime entitled “The upside of boring: Risks & asset allocation in low vol regimes.”
To be sure, the bank makes all kinds of interesting points in the piece, but one that lends itself to the quick and easy treatment is the disconnect between markets and geopolitical/ policy reality.
This is an issue we explored earlier this week in “Markets Need To Be Exposed To Politics Just Like The Rest Of Us.”
It’s a well worn topic. Basically, central bank intervention has perpetuated the BTFD dynamic which in turn causes any vol. spike to promptly “mean revert” while the voracious CB bid for sovereign debt and corporate credit keeps a lid on spreads no matter what happens in the political arena.
Well, with that in mind, consider the following chart from Goldman’s note which shows that the discrepancy between 12-month realized equity vol. and US economic policy uncertainty has almost never been more glaring:
A similar situation exists between equity vol. and geopolitical uncertainty: