When Will Trump Be Removed? Spoiler Alert: Maybe Never
Good news for Donald Trump!...
"Being loathed by the American public, and being widely and correctly perceived to be a criminal, did not do [Nixon] in for a long time."
That's from an amusing post by Jonathan Rauch that serves as a stark reminder of just how difficult it will likely be to remove Trump from office.
While betting odds have fluctuated depending to a large extent on the latest WaPo or NY Times bombshell...
...history (and math) suggests getting rid of Trump may be well nigh im
Speaker Ryan has already said he won’t move on or abandon Trump until his GOP support falls below 50%.
The simple answer is that Trump is unimpeachable as long as neither party in Congress wants him impeached, and they don’t.
The Republicans for obvious reasons, and because by this time the Democrats have surely concluded that Trump is their best insurance policy heading into future election campaigns.
Funny that–the betting spreads more closely and appropriately follow/approximate political risk than markets…
So…a few questions…do you not think that the Republican support will wane significantly as the mid-term elections draw ever-nearer? I feel like the majority of the controversy we have seen of late has come from the GOP (certainly many of the “leaks” have…) and I wonder what the Republican support will look like if Jon Ossoff wins or nearly wins in Georgia? Will they still so staunchly support him then–When their own political survival may be at stake?
I have done some back of the envelope math about this (full disclosure–I am NOT a mathlete…) and it seems to me that if 66M voted for HFC, and only 63M voted for Trump…and about 40M of those that voted for Trump, really just voted AGAINST HFC (not really Trump fans), wouldn’t that suggest that there are really only about 20-25M base Trump supporters? It doesn’t seem like enough to ensure a mid-term victory for the GOP…especially since many of those in his base were first time voters, and many will not likely come out for a mid-term election (it’s difficult for either party to mobilize mid-term voters)…
The Dems have just stood largely on the sidelines and let him self-destruct…they have not (really) poured any gasoline on the fire yet…suggesting they potentially have something in reserve…and given that the GOP is so completely fractured (I actually see three separate parties…Constitutionalists/Institutionalists like McConnell, Moderates like Collins/Murkowski and Fiscal Hawks like Flake, Heller, Lee, Paul, Toomey and Ryan…it’s hard to see them coming together any time soon to move their agendas forward (BTW: can anyone tell me just WHAT the GOP agenda includes anymore??)
That said, you might be right, given that just about NOTHING makes sense anymore…
Assuming your math is correct, that may still leave the Trump bloc as the largest single coalition in the Republican primaries, and I imagine most Republican politicians have already come to the same conclusion.
Hard to “like” such a devastating post, but thanks for the realistic assessment.