It’s Official: “We Can Lay The Trump Reflation Euphoria To Rest”

Well as noted on Monday evening, the debate is heating up as to what we're supposed to make of recent shifts in Treasury spec positioning. We're staring down a net long in the 10Y that's the most extreme since December 2007, and as Deutsche Bank's Aleksandar Kocic wrote over the long weekend, that probably means exactly what it usually means. Namely this: Typically, excessive overweight implies subsequent sell off and vice versa. Spec positioning data, both levels and changes, is a contrarian