Cheers to you in the new year…
Category: reflation
Behold The Story Count Death Cross: ‘Deflation’ Edition
“But in April the reflation story began to lose steam (as Trump trades faltered). Such has been the reversal that last month, ‘deflation’ once again surpassed ‘reflation’ as the trending story.”
Stocks Fall Across The Globe As Hawkish Central Banks, Washington Jitters Roil Risk
Well, the overnight action was predictable under the circumstances, but it’s nevertheless unnerving for anyone
Chart Of The Day: Asset Prices In The Trump Era
See if you can spot what’s still hanging on for dear life at record highs/tights despite lackluster incoming data and central bank tightening…
SocGen’s Big Call: It’s Time To “Make Reflation Great Again!”
“Our reading of the US situation is that, while persistently worrying at the political and diplomatic levels, it is close to Goldilocks at the economic level. The sub-2.5% GDP growth allows the Fed to tighten “only†moderately, and this is a clear burden to the US dollar and a trigger for risk-taking elsewhere.”
4 Black Swans And Why “Trumpflation” Is No Match For The End Of “Xiflation”
Well, SocGen is out with their Global Economic Outlook which, as you may or may
It’s Official: “We Can Lay The Trump Reflation Euphoria To Rest”
“Still, when confronted with a choice of positioning for mean reversion or extremes to get more extreme, given the current level of market uncertainty I’ll choose the first one every time.”
Everything You Need To Know For The Week Ahead
Well, it’s Sunday which means normally, you’d be thinking about Monday, but this weekend you
“Here Today, Gone Tomorrow,” One Trader Indicts A “Sheep-Like, Cynical” Market
“Last week it was, U.S. is cratering, the legislative agenda is dead, China is tightening at a dangerous rate and Brazil will take down the emerging market complex. So far today, and it’s only Monday, global growth is accelerating, corporate profits are great, China knows exactly when to ease off the decelerator, PMIs are a source of strength not worry.”
“Sharks In The Sea Of Tranquility” – Looking Ahead
So what did we learn last week? Well, we learned that despite what amounts to
Assuming You Think America Is Still A Democracy, Here’s How To Think About Markets & Trump
“In a democracy like the US the main impact of elevated political uncertainty is higher risk of inaction”…
“It’s Funny Because It’s Treason”: Global Markets Jittery As Trump Makes New Lows
We start Tuesday on a treasonous note… So because he’s President, Donald Trump gets some
“Prepare For Excitement!” One Trader Thinks Higher Oil Prices Will Save Us All
Prepare for another round of “reflation trade” excitement…
Reflation Is Dead, Long Live Reflation
“Just don’t call it the reflation trade or your portfolio allocation may be misaligned to reality.”
Contagion Warning: “There’s Nowhere Really To Hide” As Bloodbath In Commodities Continues
Oh, boy. Well, it got worse for the beleaguered metals complex overnight. After a harrowing
Sunday Humor: “None Shall Pass (Through)”
“Come Patsy”…
If The Curve Doesn’t Get Steeper Soon, One Strategist Is Going To Lose His Mind
So you should care about the evolution of rates strategists’ forecasts for the yield curve
Goldman Presents The Great “Fade” Trade
“This phase peaked at the end of January this year – we have entered a ‘reflation pausation’. We think this is the result of a combination of worries: (1) Disappointing hard data vs. soft data so far, in particular core CPI, (2) commodity recovery fading and base effect on headline inflation rolling off, (3) Trump optimism fading, (4) European politics moving into the hot phase, and (5) first signs of growth momentum slowing.”
You Only Need One Chart
Do you want a “pure” look at how disconnected equities have become from the economic realities of the reflation narrative?
“Petty” (And Pesky) Narratives
One day after warning that “frazzled” would be “the word of the month” for traders,
Uh-Oh. Core CPI Posts First Decrease In More Than 7 Years
So much for reflation…
Gundlach: “This Reflation Trade Is Going Away”
We’ve been saying since January that investors were showing signs of fading the reflation narrative
We’re At “An Inflection Point” – Here’s How NOT To Play It
Over the weekend, we talked a bit about the “seismic battle taking place between the
“Hope Versus Reality”: Goldman Illustrates The Trump Trade Fade
“This week the market struggled to readjust its expectations for US government policy following the move away from health care reform. Client conversations make clear that investors fall into two camps: The first group worries that the failure to “repeal and replace†the Affordable Care Act is a sign that other items on the policy agenda are less likely to be enacted than they had hoped. Others are encouraged about the shift in focus to tax reform as the new top priority for the administration.”
Did Credit Investors Just Give Up On The Trump Agenda?
A couple of days ago in “One Word And One Word Only: ‘Duration’,” we noted
Reflation Frustration: Bloomberg Explains The Market’s Most Important Dynamic
We’ve talked so much in these pages about why cross-asset correlations matter that our (digital) pens are dry and our (virtual) voices are hoarse. On Thursday, Bloomberg proves they know this is “kind of a big deal.”
BofAML: Health Care Failure “Best Thing To Happen To Trump Trades Since Inauguration”
“In our view, the failure to push through healthcare reform by the GOP last week was possibly the best thing to happen to Trump trades since the inauguration. “
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