“EU”phoria

Just how confident is everyone about Europe now that Emmanuel Macron managed to trounce Marine Le Pen in a runoff that threatened to install a dancing Nazi in the French presidency?

Well, if you’re looking at equities, the most confident in history:

EuroEquities

(BofAML)

“Strong earnings in combination with subdued political risks, allowed European equities to record the largest inflow ever,” BofAML’s Barnaby Martin notes, adding that “the inflow was predominately via the ETF route; also the highest ever recorded.”

Meanwhile, in FX, one-week EURUSD implied vol fell for a fifth day, dropping Friday by as much as 24bps to 5.77 vols, its lowest since September. As Bloomberg wrote earlier today, “a drop below September 6 low at 5.38 vols will send the gauge to its lowest since 2014, when vols had sunk to record lows.”

EuroVol

(BBG)

Or, summed up…

 

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3 thoughts on ““EU”phoria

  1. ETF’s make up a big portion of inflows? Seem to remember H saying something about the dangers of ETF conflagration.

    A (widely) expected Macron win incites that kind of sigh of relief? Their problems were hardly summed up in Le Pen, mind you. Hard to see how Macron represents an “Easy Button” that’s been pushed.

    How long before similar socialist/populist movements in Italy (Five Star) threaten upsetting another big EU economy with a Euro-breakup teaser and awakening a latent Italian banking crisis?

    How long before EU becomes as FU?

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