Join institutional investors, analysts and strategists from the world's largest banks: Subscribe today
Already have an account? log in
‘Bigly’ Earnings Growth “Isn’t A Fantasy” Because Wall Street Says It Will Eventually Be Real
Here's the thing about a rally that's three-quarters multiple expansion: you'd better hope earnings don't disappoint. That's pretty much all there is to that.
Recall this from Goldman:
Since the market low of 1099 in 2011, the S&P 500 has climbed by 115%. This second phase of the bull market has lasted more than five years and has been driven mostly by an increase in valuation rather than the level of profits.The adjusted P/E multiple climbed to 18x from 10x, explaining 71% of the rise in t
Of course it’s BS. Any time the markets deflate even a little the “good old boys and girls” of the Fed network go to work on the BS hand pump and reflate the fu*ker. It’s easy a little “good cop-bad cop” and the markets lap-up the crap on either side of the “status quo” bubble. Boy these folks are “anal” when it comes to CONTROL. The three legged stool is teetering on one leg as Janet & Co try to keep the “black swans” at bay. Black Swan #1- Debt Ceiling Answer #1 Bump to 22T- Fed then funds “swap help” to friendly central banks to cover onslaught of Treasury issuance’s Answer#2- Trump/Bannon removes the Treasury Debt Ceiling by another Executive Order Either answer is terrible for US Black Swan #2 Bigly Mall store closures combined with personal credit hitting the wall (of debt)- Over leveraged box anchor stores (MACY’s, Sears, Penny’s, Dillard’s etc) can’t pay their bills and they are walking away/ it’s not only online competition Black Swan #3 Pension Crisis- Bloomberg estimates the shortage (under funded) at 1.9T others put over 3T What would a 10-20% drop in markets over 5-6 month period do to these retirement funds and other (CMBS) Commercial mortgage-back securities??? Cannonball coming……….. Be safe.
Wonderful site you have here but I was curious if you knew of any forums
that cover the same topics talked about in this article?
I’d really like to be a part of group where I can get comments
from other experienced individuals that share the same interest.
If you have any suggestions, please let me know. Many thanks!
fodboldtrøjer