Ok, so the whole “repeal and replace” thing didn’t go so well.
But look, you can’t blame Donald Trump. I mean he did his best. He tried to the time the vote to coincide with the anniversary of Obamacare to give everybody something to be excited about. He tried reverting to “Reality TV Trump” by issuing a last minute ultimatum. Hell, he even dispatched Steve Bannon to put a severed horse head in the bed of anyone who voted “no.”
No dice.
That’s fine though, because now Tump can move on to all of the things that are now impossible thanks to the failure of the health bill. Like tax reform.
Well, for those interested, here’s a fun time line of things Trump will also fail at negotiating and some accompanying color.
Via Barclays
Healthcare: House delays American Health Care Act (AHCA) — The GOP’s goal is to minimize intraparty struggles, re-focus on comprehensive tax reform, and leave the option to revisit healthcare
- GOP calls to repeal and replace ACA over the past seven years were more political rhetoric than an actual plan. GOP has not resolved an internal dispute with healthcare’s three-legged stool — the individual mandate, providing subsidies, and enforcing the guarantee for pre-existing conditions — as removing any one of them requires trade-offs between cost and coverage
- We expect an intense intra-GOP fight, especially between the president and Speaker Ryan. There are concerns that the GOP domestic policy agenda could dissolve, but we think this delay will increase efforts to pass tax reform (or targeted tax cuts) before the Nov 2018 mid-term elections
Tax Reform or Tax Cuts: GOP to re-focus immediately on taxes and pursue comprehensive reform, with a goal of passing legislation by August, well before the 2018 mid-terms
- Outlook: Comprehensive tax reform will very likely meet significant obstacles, as there are limited revenue raisers to offset the proposed substantial tax cuts. We think tax reform could evolve to tax cuts (corporate rates possibly from 35% to 20-30%) and a repatriation of foreign earnings (potentially taxed at 8-15%). The House-proposed border adjustment tax (BAT) faces hurdles, given concerns of price increases, WTO compliance, and possible domestic job losses. Current costs of individual tax cuts will likely alarm fiscal hawks; we expect a more muted plan than the current one
Trade: Administration aims to implement protectionist measures (eg, tariffs), as they view this form of economic nationalism as spurring long-term growth
- NAFTA process has started; expect formal notice to trading partners shortly
