Time stamp it.
Sure, it may seem like a deflationary bombshell has been dropped on markets over the past two weeks or so, but as Goldman reminds us, “there’s reflation and then there’s reflation.”
Consider the following from a note out late last night that essentially conveys the following simple message: “f*ck reality.”
Despite concerns over a more hawkish US Fed in response to robust US economic data, the lack of a sell-off in the service reflation trade suggests that the weakness in commodities was mainly China- and OPEC-driven by: 1) concerns over Chinese policy aimed at slowing demand and restarting shuttered capacity, 2) Chinese response to a more hawkish US Fed to stem capital outflows, and 3) doubts over the effectiveness of OPEC’s production cuts. We believe all of these concerns are misplaced and argue that the market needs a little patience to wait for the fundamentals to materialize from the OPEC cuts, the January surge in Chinese credit and strong global PMIs. We remain very confident in the fundamental follow through and maintain our positive outlook across the commodity complex. Although the lack of hard evidence for several more weeks could create more downside risk, we believe with oil at $48/bbl and copper at $5700/t, the risk-reward supports re-entering these markets from the long side now if not invested or staying long if already invested as we are in our top trade recommendation. We maintain our 2Q17 WTI forecast of $57.50/bbl and LME copper forecast of $6200/t.