As March Odds Top 80%, One Bank Says Not So Fast

"That Wells Fargo note is looking pretty prescient right now" - said no one, anywhere ever. Until now. Recall this from Wells out February 3: The Fed rarely tightens unless the market is pricing at least a 60% of a rate hike one month before the FOMC meeting. Figure 7 underscores this point. The Fed has implemented 25 bps hikes on 27 occasions since 1991. Twenty days before the hike, the implied probability was below the key 60% level in only three of the 27 cases. The Fed tightening in Decemb