With French election risk front and center, and having spent what is probably an inordinate amount of time talking about Marine Le Pen over the
“Both of these inferences are wrong. The risk of a President Le Pen is far lower than the ex ante risk of Brexit or President Trump was last year, but the consequence of her winning would be far worse.”
“A weaker USD, lower yields, strong equities, low vol and strong EM suggest that markets do not expect US fiscal stimulus this year, but also do not expect trade protection. We strongly disagree”…
In a further testament to the impact the resurrection of nationalism will likely have on markets, Fitch was out Friday warning that Trump’s policies could well prove catastrophic for the rest of the world.