Well, that escalated quickly…
- ADP says U.S. firms added 246k jobs in Jan.
- 246k jobs vs. est. 168k (range 140k to 204k) from 39 economists.
- Dec. revised by -2k to 151k from 153k as reported last month.
- Small firms (1-49) added 62k jobs in Jan.
- Medium firms (50-499) added 102k jobs in Jan.
- Firms with over 500 employees added 83k jobs
- Treasuries fall to session lows after January ADP Employment
- The dollar gained after ADP employment report was stronger than expected;
- The Bloomberg dollar index stayed within the day’s range, though USD scored fresh highs vs EUR and JPY.
What’s the over/under on how long it takes Trump to tweet something?
It may not be apparent as one is sipping beverages oceanfront on a sunny island, but the eastern half of the US had great weather in January outside a few cold days, with no winter storms to speak of. Normally when that happens we get a pop in the Jan/Feb numbers, as the seasonal algorithms do not take that into account, and we give the jobs back in the Spring. The 25k pop in construction jobs in a category that has been flat-lining is certainly a clue. From DC to Boston was 6 degrees above normal. Also note those regions were leaders in the Fed Manufacturing Index surveys and the ISM PMI which tracks the surveys well.