Is The Record Treasury Short A Contrarian Indicator? This Scatter Plot Has The Answer

I've spilled 46 gallons (exactly) of digital ink talking about the multi-sigma short in Treasurys. In fact, I've written so much about it that I'm inclined to think that if I were you, I'd be sick of hearing about it. Sorry about that, because you're going to hear a lot more about it going forward. As you're aware, the extreme positioning in Treasurys is a reflection of reflation trade bias. If you're short, you think the reflation narrative has legs. If you're long, you think yields will rema