…famine, pestilence and, naturally, locust plagues.
One thing to note at the outset: the idea that because piling fiscal stimulus atop an overheating economy is likely to drive inflation and therefore people will buy stocks, has a major flaw. Namely that if most of the “benefit” from fiscal stimulus goes to inflation and not growth, then it’s exceedingly likely that you’ll get a poor growth-inflation outcome (i.e. stagflation).
The amusing thing about this (to me anyway) is that it is to a certain extent emblematic of markets’ overwhelming tendency to misprice the tails. These pieces almost read like a guide to the unthinkable – “here’s what happens if everything just goes to complete sh*t”…
Analysts are now forced to take Trump’s tweets into account when commenting on the prospects for specific stocks. That, in turn, has led to the contention that idiosyncratic risk will almost invariably rise during Trump’s presidency. It’s thus very possible that Donald Trump could single-handedly bring about a shift in inter-market correlations.