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Featured

The Problem, In A Nutshell…

October 30, 2026
  • What’s What And WTF?

    October 30, 2026October 30, 2026
  • Oil, Dammit!

    October 30, 2026October 30, 2026
  • My Goodness: Amazon Spent Some Money

    October 29, 2026

Markets

Alphabet Whiffs, Microsoft Hits

October 28, 2026October 29, 2026
  • Mona Lisa’s Smirk

    October 28, 2026October 29, 2026
  • F-ck You, Claude (Zen)

    October 27, 2026October 28, 2026
  • Around, Around We Go

    October 27, 2026October 28, 2026
  • Anthropic: The Promise, The Numbers, The Risks

    October 26, 2026October 27, 2026

economy

‘Remains Elevated’

October 29, 2026October 30, 2026
  • Boom!

    October 29, 2026October 30, 2026
  • Dissembling Strategery

    October 28, 2026October 29, 2026
  • Frozen Bubble

    October 27, 2026October 28, 2026
  • It’s All Relative

    October 27, 2026October 28, 2026

Geopolitics

Lagarde Versus Le Pen?

October 29, 2026October 30, 2026

The Tragic Irony Of The Israeli State

October 28, 2026October 29, 2026

Lula!

October 26, 2026October 27, 2026

Duly Noted

An ARM And A Leg

October 28, 2026October 30, 2026

Not Since 1969…

October 22, 2026October 24, 2026

‘A Very, Very Serious Situation’

March 23, 2021March 24, 2021

The mood was cautious Tuesday, as the pandemic fight, now in its second year, weighed

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14 Comments on ‘A Very, Very Serious Situation’

US New Home Sales Collapsed 18% In February

March 23, 2021March 23, 2021

New home sales printed a sizable miss to consensus for February, adding to evidence that

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1 Comment on US New Home Sales Collapsed 18% In February

Kaplan Won’t ‘Get In The Way’ If Market Pushes Yields To 2%

March 23, 2021March 23, 2021

We know where Robert Kaplan stands. In remarks to CNBC Tuesday, Kaplan said he’s “more

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1 Comment on Kaplan Won’t ‘Get In The Way’ If Market Pushes Yields To 2%

All That Matters

March 22, 2021March 24, 2021

Monday was instructive for anyone who still doesn’t understand the dynamic currently governing markets. US

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3 Comments on All That Matters

Richest Americans Hide 20% Of Income, Costing You $175 Billion Annually

March 22, 2021March 28, 2021

In “The Wealth Tax And Our Shared Insanity,” I offered a deliberately humorous take on

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12 Comments on Richest Americans Hide 2012 Of Income, Costing You $175 Billion Annually

What Is A Bubble And Are We In One? Goldman Answers

March 22, 2021March 26, 2021

What is a “bubble” and are we in one? Those two questions are a perennial

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5 Comments on What Is A Bubble And Are We In One? Goldman Answers

Nomura’s McElligott: The Curve ‘Has Single-Handedly Told The Tale Of 2021’

March 22, 2021March 23, 2021

If you’re looking to hear the story of 2021 (for markets, I mean) you should

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In Turkey: Meltdown

March 22, 2021March 25, 2021

Recep Tayyip Erdogan asked for it, and he got it. Assets in Turkey were besieged

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Leave a Comment on In Turkey: Meltdown

Lucky Number 7

March 21, 2021March 24, 2021

A quick look at the schedule for this week suggests it’ll be a noisy affair,

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1 Comment on Lucky Number 7

Bond Bear Spray? One Bank Sees Quarter-Trillion In ‘Pent-Up’ Duration Demand

March 21, 2021March 28, 2021

Between an accumulated rebalancing “miss” in 2020 and equity outperformance during the first quarter of

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Leave a Comment on Bond Bear Spray? One Bank Sees Quarter-Trillion In ‘Pent-Up’ Duration Demand

The Taxman Is Coming. But Stocks Will Worry About That Later

March 21, 2021March 22, 2021

For now, the obsession du jour is still inflation soup. The recipe is a secret.

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9 Comments on The Taxman Is Coming. But Stocks Will Worry About That Later

Larry Summers And Orthodoxy In Its Death Throes

March 20, 2021March 26, 2021

I doubt the utility of dedicating additional space and energy to Larry Summers’s wildly quixotic

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15 Comments on Larry Summers And Orthodoxy In Its Death Throes

Dalio Frets To China About Fed Bond-Buying

March 20, 2021March 21, 2021

Ray Dalio elaborated on the problems facing US macroeconomic policy while speaking Saturday at the

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14 Comments on Dalio Frets To China About Fed Bond-Buying

‘We Could See Volatility’: Expiration Of SLR Relief Haunts Strategists

March 20, 2021March 25, 2021

Not everyone is particularly sanguine about the Fed’s decision to allow supplementary leverage ratio exclusions

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2 Comments on ‘We Could See Volatility’: Expiration Of SLR Relief Haunts Strategists

In Potentially Disastrous Move, Erdogan Fires Another Central Bank Governor

March 19, 2021March 21, 2021

On Thursday, CBT Governor Naci Agbal delighted markets with another rate hike. The 200bps move

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1 Comment on In Potentially Disastrous Move, Erdogan Fires Another Central Bank Governor

‘Get Em’ While They’re Still Hot’

March 19, 2021March 20, 2021

It probably wasn’t a “forecast.” On Friday, a couple of media outlets jumped at the

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Leave a Comment on ‘Get Em’ While They’re Still Hot’

Zeus’s Catch-22 (Forget The Bonds. Take The Cannoli)

March 19, 2021March 20, 2021

The Fed faces a “Catch-22,” BofA’s Michael Hartnett said, in the latest edition of the

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5 Comments on Zeus’s Catch-22 (Forget The Bonds. Take The Cannoli)

Fed Waters Down SLR Expiration With Allusions To Modifications

March 19, 2021March 22, 2021

After an agonizing delay, the Fed finally made an announcement on supplementary leverage ratio relief.

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Leave a Comment on Fed Waters Down SLR Expiration With Allusions To Modifications

Lab Work

March 19, 2021March 19, 2021

It’s not clear, to me anyway, why they bothered. I’m sure “BOJ watchers” spent the

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1 Comment on Lab Work

Baked Alaska

March 19, 2021March 22, 2021

Chinese stocks crumbled Friday, diving nearly 3%, a slide some attributed to acrimony during high-level

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12 Comments on Baked Alaska

What Wall Street Thinks Of Jerome Powell Now

March 18, 2021March 23, 2021

The bond market wasted little time taking Jerome Powell up on his implicit invitation to

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6 Comments on What Wall Street Thinks Of Jerome Powell Now

A Whiff Of Desperation

March 18, 2021March 19, 2021

The Fed may have threaded the proverbial needle this week, but the follow through suggested

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2 Comments on A Whiff Of Desperation

Philly Fed Prints A Half-Century High Scorcher

March 18, 2021March 19, 2021

If you were looking for a scorching indicator to support the contention that the US

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Leave a Comment on Philly Fed Prints A Half-Century High Scorcher

Jobless Claims Unexpectedly Jump As $242 Billion Hits Bank Accounts

March 18, 2021March 21, 2021

770,000 Americans filed for unemployment benefits last week, far more than anticipated. The uptick comes

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Leave a Comment on Jobless Claims Unexpectedly Jump As $242 Billion Hits Bank Accounts

Erdogan Allows Another Rate Hike At Critical Juncture For Turkey

March 18, 2021March 18, 2021

“[We’ve] decided to implement a front-loaded and strong additional monetary tightening”… is something you don’t

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Leave a Comment on Erdogan Allows Another Rate Hike At Critical Juncture For Turkey

Pushing The Envelope

March 18, 2021March 18, 2021

Jerome Powell’s uncharacteristically deft navigation of treacherous waters around the March FOMC meeting provided a

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Against The Odds, Powell Threads Needle. For Now

March 17, 2021March 18, 2021

Jerome Powell’s odds of skating through the March FOMC press conference unscathed were long. There

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5 Comments on Against The Odds, Powell Threads Needle. For Now

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Monthly Letters

The Arbitrageur

October 29, 2026October 29, 2026

To Be Happy

September 4, 2026September 4, 2026

Hell Or High Fashion

July 3, 2026July 3, 2026

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