One Bank Sees ‘Ominous Signs For The World’s Most Important Financial Institutions’
“We do not believe this decoupling will be sustainable. Either the rest of the equities must come under pressure or the financial sector must rally.”
Search Results for: Mehul Daya
Urjit Patel And The Dollar Liquidity Shortage Debate
The “double whammy” problem.
A Ray Of Sunshine For The Carry Trade On An Otherwise Stormy Day
Color me skeptical. Curb your enthusiasm. And all that…
Canary Tipping And Dynamite Fishing
“There are many ‘canaries’ that are starting to ‘fall over’ – hence we are deeply concerned about current market conditions. “
Cracks In The Carry Trade
“For the first time since the start of 2016 (when the risk-on phase started), dollar liquidity has rolled over.”
Why One Bank Thinks The Narrative And Current Positioning Are ‘Fraught With Risk’
“Typically when positions are as large as they are currently, the risk is that if the prevailing narrative of the time does not play out perfectly, violent reversals will ensue.”
When Tailwinds Become Headwinds
“The major opposing forces in 2018 will be contracting global liquidity vs synchronized global growth. Our view is that the former will be the bigger force, and will drive asset returns in 2018.”
Nedbank Asks: Is A Dollar Liquidity Crunch Coming?
“The shortage of dollars is a longer-term structural problem for the world.”
“Every Time The Market Has Moved Up To This Trendline” There’s Trouble
“Our fair value model indicates these pressures will push the US10yr up to 3.00%. The latter level is also the major support line coming all the way from the late 1980s.”
Nedbank: “The Risk-On Phase Is Very Close To Being Over”
“The Fed might be the trigger for tighter financial conditions, but not the cause (as we believe the risk-on phase is very close to being over).”
Explaining Low Vol In Dollar Terms (Literally)
“We believe that this risk-on phase (that started in January 2016) is coming to an end.”
Guest Post: It’s Always Just A Question Of Price
“Throw enough cheap money at the problem, and people will find a way. I can’t tell you where. I can’t tell you when. But I am confident that eventually, people will borrow.”
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