Key Calls (Tuesday): Upgrades, Downgrades & Initiations
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One of the questions we’ve been asking for some time now is this: “when will
“It is my privilege to bring NAFTA up to date through renegotiation,” Trump said, adding that he “believes that the end result will make all three countries stronger and better.”
“It doesn’t really matter. For a while, investors will assume the rot spreads deeper than just one company. The entire Canadian real estate sector will now be guilty until proven innocent.”
“During the past five years, May has been the worst month, on average, for EM FX. I remain a structural long-term bull on emerging markets, but the next month could see a painful cleanout of complacent positioning.”
“With French political risk significantly reduced (even if there’s still a two-week second round campaign to negotiate), an improving global economy, steadier oil prices, and most of all, range-bound US yields and a lack of fear of rapid Fed tightening, investors see few demons and are off in search of yield.”
Whatever you do, make sure you keep in mind that the world’s worst market timer (the government) just cried “Uncle.†The proper trade is to assume they will make a mess. A big one.
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Are your stocks on the list?
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You can’t cure stupid. Which means the irony inherent in paying billions of taxpayer dollars to
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If there’s anything I’ve been consistent on over the past several months, it’s been the
“At the same time, tariffs would weigh on US growth. If we assume that Mexico and China retaliate with equivalent tariffs, this would substantially reduce demand for US exports, depressing US GDP by around 0.7pp by 2019. In fact, tariffs would likely hit US GDP so sharply that the Federal Reserve would be prompted to reduce interest rates to cushion the blow—despite an increase in inflation.”
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If you really know markets, then you know that last week’s biggest story was plunging
It was just one week ago in “A $1.3 Trillion Quandary” that I (re)introduced you
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S&P 500’s 166-day streak without 5% pullback is longest since 2007; “Selloff is inevitable, perhaps starting very soonâ€
In a further testament to the impact the resurrection of nationalism will likely have on markets, Fitch was out Friday warning that Trump’s policies could well prove catastrophic for the rest of the world.
Friday is all about Trump again. More specifically, FX markets will be closely eyeing a meeting between the President and Japanese PM Shinzo Abe. Meanwhile, oil is buoyant Friday on the back of an IEA report showing OPEC has achieved a record 90% compliance while demand is on the rise.
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I’d say it’s probably fair to suspect that when it comes to renegotiating NAFTA (“the
The irony in all of this is that should Merkel lose the battle, the savior of Western democratic ideals may well end up being a communist…
“Trade has never dominated politics in the way it has this year”…
Look out, it’s a Twitter tape bomb!
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