If CEOs Are So Damn Happy About Trump, Why Aren’t The Numbers Reflecting It?
“If CEOs are more likely to be Republican, then partisanship could explain the weirdly high CEO confidence numbers.”
“If CEOs are more likely to be Republican, then partisanship could explain the weirdly high CEO confidence numbers.”
“ETFs own almost 6% of the equity market, the highest ETF share on record. In contrast, mutual fund ownership fell to its lowest level since 2004 (24%).”
“Such tight trading ranges for the S&P 500 that extended for 3 months or longer have been very unusual historically, with only 8 such comparable prior episodes (since 1928).”
“Equities investors are acting like the last honest man in town. Couldn’t care less about politics, geo or domestic. And aren’t ashamed to admit it. Give ’em tax cuts and deregulation and they’re happy. Throw in repatriation holidays to fund buybacks and they’re ecstatic. Add the sovereign wealth funds and they won’t even give you a dip to buy. Earnings per share is as outdated a concept as value investing. It is what it is, until it ain’t.”
Gandalf is back. A couple of weeks after retracting (at least partially) his “buy every
“Following years of prioritizing repurchases as a use of cash, corporations actually cut annual spending on buybacks by 11% in 2016 and executions YTD have plunged by 20% vs. last year. Meanwhile, authorizations YTD for new programs are proceeding at the slowest pace in five years.”
“US equity underperformance has been rare in recent years, but year-to-date, US equities have underperformed global equities by around 0.7% in USD terms. We reiterate our underweight stance, and view the challenges for US equities in a global context as the following”…
“In this report, following the reaching of our mid-year S&P 500 target, we raise both our mid-year and year-end S&P targets to 2,400 and 2,500, respectively (from 2,350 and 2,300). “
Castles in the sky?
In case you needed a reminder of just how long it’s been since this market
It’s been no secret that the bid for equities in 2017 has been largely attributable
“Over the last 3 weeks, US equities have rallied as fund positioning rose, the buyback bid resumed as companies exited blackout periods and US equity inflows returned over the last week. Overall US equity fund positioning getting elevated. Elevated overall positioning reflects that of long-short hedge funds and asset allocation funds.”
Earlier this week, Bloomberg reported that Binky had summited Mount Siegel. That’s right, Deutsche Bank’s Binky Chadha is now officially the most bullish Wall Street strategist when it comes to the S&P, which he figures will hit 2600 by the end of the year.
For anyone still holding out hope that there’s upside for our standard valuation metrics beyond the 100th percentile, there’s always the old corporate buyback bailout…
The great thing about the bottom line is that you can “fake it ’til you
Reverse Yankee me please…
Analysts are now forced to take Trump’s tweets into account when commenting on the prospects for specific stocks. That, in turn, has led to the contention that idiosyncratic risk will almost invariably rise during Trump’s presidency. It’s thus very possible that Donald Trump could single-handedly bring about a shift in inter-market correlations.
“Every country in the world better start worrying about authoritarian populism and the absence of substance in our dialogue.”
The path to $130 is paved with pro forma gold and tax breaks.
What does this do for the “silent majority”? Well, not much.
Over the course of the last week, I’ve brought you Goldman’s top trades and top
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