To the extent the most recent drama is just the latest in a series of “predictable” political shocks, it reinforces what one might call the “noisy status quo” which is part and parcel of the market’s inability to form a consensus.
Category: volatility
‘Somebody Snuck One In Past The Goalkeeper’: Why The VIX ‘May Have Found A Floor’
“…”the right tail must be respected too!”
‘The Biggest Risk Is A Quick SPX Selloff At The End Of The Day’: It’s Time For A ‘Doom Loop’ Update
“Come and play with us, Danny”…
This Is What ‘Max Central Bank Predictability’ Looks Like
Needless to say, breaking with this precedent of predictability – i.e. becoming less transparent – carries enormous risks.Â
‘Clearly, Investors Are Feeling Good’: Here’s The ‘Euphoria’ Chart Again
Low vol., “humans” cited.
The Fed’s ‘Short Volatility Position’: A Closer Look At Jerome Powell’s Comment
“Another way to look at it, though, is that it’s not so much the sale, the duration; it’s also unloading our short volatility position.”
Monday Brings Another Record Low Vol. Moment
What could go wrong? It’s not like there’s political turmoil across the pond and there’s no way the ECB taper could go awry, right?
This Hasn’t Happened Since 1995
The reason we bring this up on Sunday is actually to draw your attention to another fun “longest since” moment.
Bitcoin Futures Vs. VIX Futures: Who Said ‘Slow’ Start?
Who you callin’ slow?
How Time Itself Became Collateral Damage Of The Short Vol. Trade
The fourth wall and beyond.
Here’s How You Will Know If Another Black Monday Is Coming…
The writing would be on the wall at least a month prior.
For The First Time In Modern History, A Better Future Is Not The Base Case
“For any ideology the gradient between the present and the future has always had to be positive.”
‘Investors No Longer Fear Shocks, But Love Them’
Land speed record dip buying.
In Search Of The Mythical Vol. Spike
It’s like Bigfoot. Or Nessie.
A ‘Sudden Spike’ And ‘Greater Volatility Amplitude’
You have been warned (again).
The Last Time This Happened, The World Ended…
“What do you mean, ‘we,’ Kemo Sabe?”
What Can Stop This Party?
Obviously, nothing could go wrong here.
Trader: ‘This Has The Potential To Destabilize The Entire System On Its Own’
“But how ironic would it be, if the instrument that was the hands-down winner during the last crisis, ended up causing the next crisis because too many people were short it?”
The Incredible Shrinking Playground
“This mechanism of market functioning is a manifestation of systemic causation.”
Market Doom Loop Update: Risk From VIX ETPs, CTAs Flashes Red
It’s all about “loops” and “spirals” these days.
The Spiral: ‘History Repeats Itself And The Price Is Higher Each Time’
“Spiraling leverage cannot continue indefinitely. At some point, the bubble becomes too big and cannot be subsumed by a bigger bubble – the damage of its burst would become irreparable.”
Short Vol. Is One Big Momentum Trade
Also ensuring a rapid reversion are everyone’s favorite market doomsday vehicles.
Suspension Of Disbelief And ‘The Largest Vol Seller In The Market’
Suspension of disbelief, on the other hand, implies an active effort on the part of the person or persons in question to avoid common sense in favor of a more convenient explanation of reality.
Guess What? You Don’t Need To Be A Doomsdayer To Be Long Volatility
“And although I am not changing my tune that the US stock market is overbought and ripe for a surprise correction, I am adding a trade to my arsenal.”
‘Where The Wild Things Are’
“In a way, continued prosperity and stability in itself is destabilizing leading to riskier lending as the asset prices of collateral decline. This is the essence of Minsky’s take on financial markets.”
‘Dancing On The Edge Of Metastability’
“But what happens if there is an exogenous circuit breaker and we can no longer pretend?”
‘We Miss Volatility’ – ‘This Is A Strange World’
“We miss volatility. We are living in a strange world with lot of geopolitical volatility but it’s not in financial markets.”
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