… but the far more important question is whether any of the three explanations posited above have any merit. Because if they do, we are in deep shit as a society.
Well, there’s not a lot going on in the week ahead and by that I mean there’s so much going on that you couldn’t plan for it even if you wanted to.
Bad news for stocks?
U.S. Sept. Nonfarm Payrolls Fell 33k
Avg. hourly earnings 0.5% m/m, est. 0.3%, prior 0.2%
Ok, it’s time for everyone to try and read the tea leaves from the August jobs report, although honestly, this seems like one of those cases where most of what you need to know is in the headline prints. Now that doesn’t mean there aren’t some juicy nuggets (not the McDonald’s ones Trump likes) buried…
You want a reason to be dovish, you’ve got one now.
Well, it’s jobs day and there are a couple of ways you can approach the August print.
Ok, so the overarching narrative for this week shouldn’t be materially different from last week – people will be concerned about the same things, namely the looming debt ceiling debate, the odds of a government shutdown which ebb and flow with whatever shows up on Trump’s Twitter feed, and the fallout from North Korea’s latest…
U.S. July Nonfarm Payrolls Rose 209k; Unemp. Rate at 4.3%
Avg. hourly earnings 0.3% m/m, est. 0.3%, prior 0.2%; Y/y 2.5%, prior 2.5% est. 2.4%
U.S. June Nonfarm Payrolls Rose 222k; Unemp. Rate at 4.4%
Avg. hourly earnings 0.2% m/m, est. 0.3%, prior 0.1%
If you were following along last week, then you already know what to look for in the week ahead. After the hawkish procession in Sintra, Portugal, which catalyzed an impressive euro rally and led directly to sharply higher DM rates, it’s now all about how markets attempt to price the beginning of the end for accommodative…
“But the inflation data has to be concerning, especially as long term inflation expectations have now completely retraced their post-election increase.”
Still a go.
Well, the May jobs report seems to suggest that #MAGA may be on hold for the time being although as Trump patiently explained on Thursday, killing the environment should help America avoid “bigly” NFP misses like the one we got on Friday morning. The bad print also underscores precisely what SocGen warned about earlier today.…
U.S. May Nonfarm Payrolls Rose 138k; Unemp. Rate at 4.3%
Avg. hourly earnings 0.2% m/m, est. 0.2%, prior 0.2%, Y/y 2.5%, prior 2.5% est. 2.6%