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Risks Aplenty.

And now, back to your regularly scheduled programming…

Who’s Ready To Send Chinese Stocks Screaming Higher?!

That said, being aware is infinitely better than being oblivious.

A Royal Shakeup, China’s Big Day Falls Flat, Crude Reality Bites

Ok, well for obvious reasons, the headlines overnight pretty much all revolved around: Saudi Arabia China Oil In Riyadh, Mohammed bin Salman consolidated still more power after replacing his cousin Muhammad bin Nayef as heir to the throne. It was, as quite a few in the media noted, an “abrupt” change. But bin Salman was already running defense,…

Dollar Is Happy, Pound Is Sad, And There’s Some Yuan Shenanigans Afoot

It’s about Dudley for the dollar which rose to a three-week high versus the yen overnight. As usual, it was a good cop/bad cop type of deal on Monday with Evans coming across as some semblance of dovish yesterday evening (“could delay next hike until December to assess data”), but Dudley’s “need to do it…

China Just Murdered The Yuan Bears

The PBoC has spoken and markets, at least for the time being, have listened. Coming off a week in which China decided that because i) markets are “unreal” and are generally populated by traders who often employ “irrational, herding actions,” and ii) those shady smart asses at Moody’s decided to downgrade the country for the first time…

Pay Attention! We Got China Credit Data Overnight

Ok, so it’s Friday. And before you get too excited about that, remember that all it means is that two days from now it will be Monday. Bummer, right? Well overnight we got the latest read on China TSF and new RMB loans which, at this point, is something you need to watch really – really…

“Nazi-Be-Gone” Rally Fizzles As Female Hitler Loss Seen Largely Priced In

Ok, so it’s Monday and France didn’t elect a fascist. So we’ve got that going for us. That said it looks like the Street got this one right – it feels like a “sell the news” event pretty much across the board. As documented earlier the euro gave back its knee-jerk to $1.1023 to trade all…

“Some Folks Missed Payments”: There’s A Storm Brewing In China

Some folks missed some payments. In the wake of the PBoC’s move to implement a second OMO hike in as many months… …Bloomberg reported overnight that some “smaller financial institutions including rural commercial banks missed payments on interbank borrowing on Monday.” That’s not a great sign and it prompted the PBoC to inject “hundreds of…

No Trouble In Little China And Nothing Doing In Oz

It was a relatively quiet overnight session on the news front, although you wouldn’t know it from the number of Bloomberg e-mails in my inbox. China’s FX reserves “unexpectedly” rose in February although I’m not entirely sure why everyone is using the term “unexpectedly” here. Have you heard much lately about the yuan? No? Exactly.…

Chaos

Well I think it’s safe to say that geopolitical risk – which the naive among you thought had dissipated materially last Tuesday evening when the nice orange man in the blond wig successfully read a teleprompter – has firmly reestablished itself as the market boogeyman. On Monday morning, Americans (including Trump’s own staffers) are still trying…

Does Anyone Still Give A Sh*t About China Risk?

We’ve come a long way (I guess) since the days when China risk was in the driver’s seat in terms of financial conditions and it’s a good thing, because the Fed has enough on its plate without having to worry about whether a wayward PBoC will short circuit the FOMC’s plans to normalize policy.

“Bigly”: Reflation Is Back As Dollar Rises, Global Stocks Rally, Oil Eyes EIA Data

Apparently, reports of the reflation meme’s demise were greatly exaggerated. It wasn’t too long ago when traders were beginning to wonder if the Trump trade was dying on the vine. One super awesome, extra bigly, “phenomenal” tax plan promise and one hawkish Janet Yellen later, and reflation is alive and kicking. Here’s SocGen’s morning take:…

Markets Relieved After Trump/Abe Meeting, Reflation Narrative Intact

Well, it was all aboard the reflation train right out of the gate in early Asian trading last night with USDJPY jumping with 10Y yields and futs, following what counts as a “successful” high level summit these days. As I noted last week, the fact that Trump didn’t physically assault Japanese PM Shinzo Abe (well,…

Bad Chinese

By now, you’re probably aware that China is in a tough spot. As I’m fond of saying, Beijing is trying to do the impossible: they’re trying to deleverage and releverage at the same time. In a nutshell, China has to maintain the illusion that the economy is growing at a clip somewhere near 6.5% while…