Goldman Answers The $100 Billion Question: “Why Is Loan Growth Collapsing The Most Since 2008?”

“The sharp deceleration in commercial and industrial loan growth has generated a sense of cognitive dissonance among market participants, who are otherwise confronting generally encouraging growth data.”

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Volatility Collapses (Again) As Investors Cling To Goldilocks Outlook On Brexit Wednesday

It’s quiet out there. Well, except for that whole UK officially leaving the EU thing. As outlined earlier this morning, Theresa May will make the UK’s split with the EU official on Wednesday, sealing the economic fate (literally, as they’ll be a hand delivered letter involved) of the British people and very possibly relegating the…

Goldman: OPEC Should Not Extend Production Cuts

“We therefore believe that OPEC should be wary of extending its production cuts unless (1) fundamentals weaken sharply driven by transient headwinds such as a ramp up in Libya or a weakening of global demand, or (2) long term oil prices decline further, limiting the rally in spot prices and the incentive to ramp up activity.”

It’s Falling Apart: Reflation Trade Shrivels Up And Dies As Markets Sour On Risk

Well, the dollar is under pressure on Monday, just as we said it would be on Sunday evening. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell as traders digested the failure of the GOP health care bill on Friday. This is the index’s eighth drop in the last nine days, and as Bloomberg notes this morning, “further losses of…

“Hope”: Health Bill Failure Isn’t Death Knell For Trump Trade, One Bank Says

We’ve said it before and we’ll say it again: one-way bets and crowded trades are inherently susceptible to getting caught horribly offsides when sh*t goes wrong. And although specs have trimmed 10Y shorts over the last two weeks (they cut around $7.4m/DV01 in the week ended Tuesday, the second straight week of pared bearish bets), eurodollar shorts are still…

Behold! The Shale Oil “Deflationary Cycle” Flow Chart

We’ve written exhaustively about the deflationary dynamic that grips crude markets. Indeed, what you’re seeing from US producers is effectively what happens when QE and central banks inadvertently create deflation as opposed to inflation. It’s very simple, really. The central bank-inspired hunt for yield drives investors down the quality ladder, creating artificial demand for HY debt…