The Fed may have a credibility problem, but like everything else in the world, it’s
Category: Markets
Germany Prepares For ‘Worst’ As Investor Outlook ‘Collapses’
“Economic expectations collapse,” read the headline atop the July vintage of Germany’s ZEW survey. It’s
Penrose Stairs
I talk quite a bit about self-referential market dynamics in these pages. Some of those
Nobody Accepts The Reality Of Investing In China
It may never be truly safe to invest in Chinese equities again. I realize that
Inflation Heat Check And The Three-Digit Hike Tail Risk
Like shoppers waiting anxiously for a monitor in the checkout line to tally the damage
Searching For Bulls In A Desolate Wasteland
Do nosebleed levels on the most widely-cited measure of bond volatility presage a counter-trend rally
Predictions About The Future
With earnings season just days away in the US, it’s not necessarily this quarter’s results
Mr. Musk Terminates The Merger
Elon Musk doesn’t want Twitter anymore. Maybe he never did. We’ll never know. Frankly, I’d
Math Problems
“It ain’t over ’til the Fed lady sings,” BofA’s Michael Hartnett wrote, employing a somewhat
Hot Jobs Report Leaves Fed Locked In On 75
The US economy added far more jobs than expected in June, the government’s hotly-anticipated monthly
Mortgage Rates Fall Most Since 2008, But Affordability Worst Since 80s
Good news: Mortgage rates fell dramatically last week. Amid a steep decline in US yields,
Mea Culpa Minutes
Minutes of the Fed’s June policy meeting, released on Wednesday, skewed hawkish. That’s not terribly
Beware Acute Downgrade Risk As Profit Reckoning Looms
Hopeless. That’s how I’d characterize forward earnings estimates headed into Q2 reporting season in the
Pink Elephants And Collapsing Commodities
Summer days tend to run together, but there’s enough in the way of idiosyncratic news
‘Grizzly Bear’ Has One Question: ‘Is It Done Going Down?’
“The question is whether it’s done going down,” Morgan Stanley’s Mike Wilson, who Bloomberg hyperbolically
This Bear Market Still Has Teeth
“Despite recession fears, S&P 500 consensus 2022 and 2023 EPS estimates have both been revised
The Most ‘Obvious’ Recession In History
“Obviously unsustainable.” That’s how one market participants described the dynamic whereby purported savings “buffers” and
Cash And Commodities Reign As ‘Everything Bubble’ Implodes
Cash is trash. Just ask Ray Dalio, he’ll tell you. That’s one of his favorite
The Worst Year For Stocks Since 1872?
Last year, when it became apparent to everyone that inflation might be on course to
Recession Panic Crescendoes With Trio Of 2023 Fed Cuts Seen
The US is “perilously close to a recession,” JPMorgan’s Michael Feroli said Friday. The bank
America Heads For ‘Industrial Downturn’
US factory activity cooled more than expected last month, hotly anticipated data out Friday showed.
Summertime In The 70s
The good news is, it’s difficult to imagine the back half of 2022 being worse
A ‘Brutal,’ ‘Pick Your Poison’ Moment
The market knows. Traders are wise to the unenviable task confronting monetary policymakers, who, lacking
Pollyannas Vs Chicken Littles: The Great American Profit Debate
Are company analysts Pollyannas or are macro-minded strategists Chicken Littles? That’s becoming one the most
‘Inflation Isn’t A Random Walk,’ Popular Strategist Reminds You
“We all get the joke,” Nomura’s Charlie McElligott wrote Tuesday. He was referring to the
One CIO Is ‘Horrified’ At Analysts’ Profit Complacency
“Economists have begun to cut their top-down economic forecasts for GDP, and yet fundamental company
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