Manufacturing activity expanded at the slowest pace in two years, the first of this week’s
Category: Markets
China Is Probably In A Recession Too
The world’s largest economy is in a recession. Or not. It depends on who you
Help (Still) Wanted
“This is a very strong labor market,” Jerome Powell said last week, addressing reporters following
Nice Rally You Got There…
You could make a fairly long list of compelling reasons to distrust the rally in
I Was Told There’d Be Drama
A week ago, I (somewhat begrudgingly) expressed guarded optimism about earnings season in the US.
Squeezes And Pivots
The nascent recovery in beleaguered stocks is rational, but if you ask one popular sell-side
Apple ‘Enriches Lives,’ Amazon Soars As Mega-Tech Earnings Wrap
Amazon and Apple closed the book on mega-cap tech earnings Thursday, as US equities looked
Jokes On Jay
The Fed is subject to a lot of bad jokes in 2022. Some are literal
Don’t Call It A Recession
It’s not a recession. It can’t be. The labor market is too strong. The midterms
Price Discovery. Via Tasseography
Real-time Fed tasseography is a very difficult undertaking. Almost as a rule, asset prices aren’t
You Have One Job
“Restoring price stability is something we have to do,” Jerome Powell said Wednesday, during remarks
Trapped Fed Goes Big Again With Recession Looming
The Fed hiked rates by the most since 1994 for the second consecutive meeting on
A Sturdy Corporate America Defies Doomsayers. So Far
The “profit reckoning” thesis is in jeopardy. Although a tsunami of key reports, including results
Bear Market Rally: Who’s Buying And Who’s Not Selling
Capitulation in equities is “only partial.” That was the message from Barclays at a critical
Microsoft, Google Still Going Concerns
Investors were on tenterhooks for mega-cap tech earnings, and not just because the “broad” market
Fair-Weather Fans
2022 will remembered for a lot things, most of them bad, or at least if
Define ‘Pivot’
This is all very simple, really. Markets will bottom when inflation peaks and the Fed
Everyday Low Guidance: Walmart Delivers Another Reality Check
Is an anomaly anomalous if it happens twice in three months? I don’t know. That’s
Something’s In The Price
Given a demonstrable deceleration in various measures of economic activity over the past month, it’s
Nowhere To Turn
There’s nothing you can do. Just as the Fed has no “good” options at a
60:40, Food:Fuel
It’s been a tough year for multi-asset investors, where “tough” means all assets have incurred
Wanted: Plausible Bull Case
“The pause is likely to come too late,” Morgan Stanley’s Mike Wilson said Monday. He
Traders Will Drown In Data During Fed Week
The July FOMC meeting isn’t the only big event on the US docket this week
Best Hawkish Behavior
In the anxious aftermath of the June CPI report, among the worst in modern US
Just Don’t Call It Optimism
I’m sympathetic to the possibility that a true reckoning for US corporate profits may still
The ‘Big Low’
The “big low” isn’t in. That’s the overarching (and all too familiar) message from one
‘They Just Kept Coming’: VaR Event Rocks Rates
Although it wasn’t obvious to anyone for whom equity benchmarks are all that matters, Friday
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