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Category: Markets

January Effects

January 14, 2025January 15, 2025

So far, January hasn’t been especially kind to previously-buoyant equities. Global shares are down 1%

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7 Comments on January Effects

Two Key Stock Performance Drivers (And One ‘Quite Depressing’ Chart)

January 14, 2025January 15, 2025

Let’s say you want to explain stock returns and performance. What factors matter? You could

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1 Comment on Two Key Stock Performance Drivers (And One ‘Quite Depressing’ Chart)

Key Systematic Strats Shed $92 Billion Of Stock Exposure Since FOMC Meeting

January 14, 2025January 15, 2025

Is the stock pullback over? I doubt it, and now that you mention it, I

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2 Comments on Key Systematic Strats Shed $92 Billion Of Stock Exposure Since FOMC Meeting

Why The VIX Space Is ‘Chronically Stressed’

January 13, 2025January 14, 2025

There’s tension in the air across markets. Can you feel it? I’ve talked at some

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1 Comment on Why The VIX Space Is ‘Chronically Stressed’

The Numbers Behind America’s AI Dominance

January 13, 2025January 14, 2025

The “US exceptionalism” theme’s ubiquitous to the point of being a cliché by now. Universal

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6 Comments on The Numbers Behind America’s AI Dominance

Stocks’ Bond Problem Grows As Traders Fret Over Fed

January 13, 2025January 14, 2025

Stocks have a bond problem. Maybe you noticed. US equities — and stocks more generally,

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The Most Pressing Question(s) On Earth

January 11, 2025January 13, 2025

I’d say there’s no more pressing question than whether the largest US tech companies will

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3 Comments on The Most Pressing Question(s) On Earth

High Bar, Two-Sided Risks: What To Expect From Earnings Season

January 11, 2025January 13, 2025

Reporting season starts next week, and analysts collectively have great expectations for corporate America. Consensus

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1 Comment on High Bar, Two-Sided Risks: What To Expect From Earnings Season

Worst Of All Possible Worlds?

January 10, 2025January 12, 2025

I don’t know how many market participants had “bear flattener” on their jobs day bingo

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2 Comments on Worst Of All Possible Worlds?

Bulls, Bears, Booms And Bonds

January 10, 2025January 11, 2025

As a reminder no one needs, last year marked just the fifth time in a

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UK Teeters On Brink Of Second Crisis In Two Years

January 9, 2025January 10, 2025

Liz Truss was in the news Thursday. Apparently, it’s illegal to suggest she crashed the

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1 Comment on UK Teeters On Brink Of Second Crisis In Two Years

Time To Catch The Falling Bond Knife?

January 8, 2025July 1, 2025

It might be time to buy the bonds. I don’t know. Not investment advice. Do

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5 Comments on Time To Catch The Falling Bond Knife?

Are The Bonds Broken?

January 7, 2025January 8, 2025

“Die gas pumper!” References to The Jerk are a staple in these pages, even as

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8 Comments on Are The Bonds Broken?

‘Welcome To Trump 2.0’: Dollar Whipsaw Is Preview Of Volatility To Come

January 6, 2025January 7, 2025

“Fake news.” That was Donald Trump’s response on Monday to a Washington Post sources story

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13 Comments on ‘Welcome To Trump 2.0’: Dollar Whipsaw Is Preview Of Volatility To Come

Burning Bonds

January 6, 2025January 7, 2025

I’ve said it over and over again in recent days and weeks, and I’ll say

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4 Comments on Burning Bonds

Modern Market Minsky Moments

January 5, 2025January 7, 2025

How long does a given market theme have to last before it becomes structural? Put

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7 Comments on Modern Market Minsky Moments

Liquidity’s Drying Up For Non-US Corporates

January 3, 2025January 6, 2025

I talk (we, all of us, talk) a lot these days about US “exceptionalism.” Once

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3 Comments on Liquidity’s Drying Up For Non-US Corporates

Musk World

January 2, 2025January 4, 2025

Not a single day goes by when Elon Musk isn’t in the news for something.

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3 Comments on Musk World

Red Scare

January 2, 2025January 3, 2025

Chinese equities were off on the wrong foot in 2025. Mainland shares dropped nearly 3%

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2 Comments on Red Scare

Will The Modern Market ‘Virtuous Cycle’ Resume In January?

January 1, 2025January 2, 2025

Remember the post-December FOMC vol shock and correlation spike? If not, don’t fret. That was

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3 Comments on Will The Modern Market ‘Virtuous Cycle’ Resume In January?

2024, Signing Off

December 31, 2024January 2, 2025

The final session of 2024 on Wall Street was, like the handful of sessions before

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6 Comments on 2024, Signing Off

Where’s My Damn Santa Rally?

December 30, 2024January 1, 2025

Someone check the stocks. They might be unplugged, like so many strands of Christmas lights

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Do You Believe In Miracles?

December 30, 2024December 31, 2024

Do you believe in miracles? Maybe you should after this year on Wall Street. 2024

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Cash: A Renaissance Tale

December 29, 2024December 30, 2024

A few days ago, while summarizing and otherwise closing the book on another remarkable year

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1 Comment on Cash: A Renaissance Tale

What’s Wrong With The Bonds?

December 29, 2024December 31, 2024

I hope Scott Bessent’s paying attention. The US long end’s on track for its worst

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13 Comments on What’s Wrong With The Bonds?

Ring It In

December 28, 2024December 30, 2024

Humanity will ring in a new year in the week ahead. Here’s hoping 2025’s every

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10 Comments on Ring It In

King Dollar Reigned In 2024

December 27, 2024December 29, 2024

Remember when Western sanctions on $300 billion of Russian reserve assets ushered in the dawn

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1 Comment on King Dollar Reigned In 2024

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Monthly Letters

The Arbitrageur

October 29, 2026October 29, 2026

To Be Happy

September 4, 2026September 4, 2026

Hell Or High Fashion

July 3, 2026July 3, 2026

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