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Category: Markets

Scott’s First QRA

February 5, 2025February 6, 2025

Treasury believes its current auction sizes leave it well positioned to address potential changes to

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15 Comments on Scott’s First QRA

Google Falls Short In Cloud, Overshoots On Capex

February 4, 2025February 5, 2025

Alphabet on Tuesday turned in a set of results which, at first glance anyway, looked

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4 Comments on Google Falls Short In Cloud, Overshoots On Capex

New Clippy

February 4, 2025February 5, 2025

I talked at some length earlier this week about Mag7 capex, and the extent to

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7 Comments on New Clippy

What Tariff Man Hath Wrought

February 3, 2025February 4, 2025

Anywhere between 5% and 10%. That’s how much US equities could sell off as a

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3 Comments on What Tariff Man Hath Wrought

‘An Act Of Economic Warfare’: Tariff Man Trump Stuns Global Markets

February 3, 2025February 3, 2025

Donald Trump’s latest and “greatest” tariff escalations roiled global markets on Monday. From Taipei to

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10 Comments on ‘An Act Of Economic Warfare’: Tariff Man Trump Stuns Global Markets

US Stocks Break January Inflow Record With $76 Billion Haul

January 31, 2025February 3, 2025

If you were curious, 2025’s off to a solid start on the flows front. For

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What If Trump’s American ‘Golden Age’ Is A Sunset?

January 31, 2025February 2, 2025

How ironic would it be if “US exceptionalism” in all its various manifestations peaked in

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4 Comments on What If Trump’s American ‘Golden Age’ Is A Sunset?

Apple’s ‘Great’ Could Be Better

January 30, 2025February 1, 2025

Apple on Thursday reported what it was probably fair to call mixed results for a

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4 Comments on Apple’s ‘Great’ Could Be Better

Remember: Tesla’s Not A Car Company

January 29, 2025January 30, 2025

It’s a good thing Tesla’s not a car company. If it was, the multiple on

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5 Comments on Remember: Tesla’s Not A Car Company

Microsoft, Meta Reports Overshadowed By DeepSeek Menace

January 29, 2025January 30, 2025

Microsoft’s “helping customers unlock the full ROI of AI,” Satya Nadella declared on Wednesday afternoon,

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11 Comments on Microsoft, Meta Reports Overshadowed By DeepSeek Menace

Powell Parries Trump Questions, Says Fed In Wait-And-See Mode

January 29, 2025January 30, 2025

“I think policy’s well-positioned,” Jerome Powell said Wednesday, while parrying incessant Trump-related questions after the

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1 Comment on Powell Parries Trump Questions, Says Fed In Wait-And-See Mode

Buying The DeepSeek Dip

January 28, 2025January 29, 2025

I’ve been doing this — and on most days, I’m not even sure what “this”

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21 Comments on Buying The DeepSeek Dip

Zuck Dodges AI Selloff On ‘DeepSeek Of The West’ Hype

January 28, 2025July 1, 2025

One of the more interesting aspects of the early-week DeepSeek panic on Wall Street was

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2 Comments on Zuck Dodges AI Selloff On ‘DeepSeek Of The West’ Hype

Little Red Box

January 27, 2025January 28, 2025

“An excellent AI advancement and a perfect example of Test Time Scaling.” That’s DeepSeek, according

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14 Comments on Little Red Box

Nvidia’s Half-Trillion DeepSeek Crash Says Singularity’s Upon Us

January 27, 2025January 28, 2025

We talk a lot about the “wealth effect” as it relates to the interplay between

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8 Comments on Nvidia’s Half-Trillion DeepSeek Crash Says Singularity’s Upon Us

AI Paradigm Shift? McElligott Weighs In On DeepSeek Shock

January 27, 2025January 28, 2025

“I’m not gonna try to play semi- / AI- expert here,” Nomura’s Charlie McElligott said

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9 Comments on AI Paradigm Shift? McElligott Weighs In On DeepSeek Shock

Will DeepSeek Deep-Six The Mag7?

January 27, 2025January 28, 2025

“More investment does not necessarily lead to more innovation.” The quote’s from quant fund manager

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21 Comments on Will DeepSeek Deep-Six The Mag7?

As Stimulus Rally Slips Away, China Resorts To State-Buying

January 23, 2025January 24, 2025

If you’re new to these pages, you might come away suspecting I’m a China-phobe. I

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2 Comments on As Stimulus Rally Slips Away, China Resorts To State-Buying

A ‘Monster Vibe Shift’

January 22, 2025January 24, 2025

Don’t look now, but US equities are within shouting distance of record highs, on track

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1 Comment on A ‘Monster Vibe Shift’

Netflix!

January 21, 2025January 22, 2025

“Tech” earnings kicked off in the US on Tuesday, when Netflix boasted blockbuster subscriber growth

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1 Comment on Netflix!

Where To For Stocks? Ask Bonds

January 21, 2025January 22, 2025

What was the biggest takeaway from last week’s post-US CPI price action? Maybe that’s an

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As Corporate America’s Interest Burden Collapsed, US Government’s Soared

January 20, 2025January 21, 2025

Much has been made of the C-suite’s falling interest burden, a trend that accelerated in

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6 Comments on As Corporate America’s Interest Burden Collapsed, US Government’s Soared

Why Higher Rates Haven’t Hurt Stocks More

January 18, 2025January 20, 2025

If you’re curious, stocks reacted just as they “should’ve” to the selloff at the long-end

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Beaten-Down Bonds Tempt With Huge Return Potential

January 17, 2025January 20, 2025

It was a good week for besieged US government debt. Benchmark US yields dropped around

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3 Comments on Beaten-Down Bonds Tempt With Huge Return Potential

Money Trees

January 16, 2025January 17, 2025

Wall Street harvested a bumper crop in Q4. The last of the big American banks

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1 Comment on Money Trees

It Pays To Be A Bank

January 15, 2025January 16, 2025

Banks. It’s good to be one. Quarterly results from a handful of majors on Wednesday

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4 Comments on It Pays To Be A Bank

Every Dove Has Its Day

January 15, 2025January 16, 2025

Markets were absolutely enamored with Wednesday’s inflation report out of the US. Bonds were the

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8 Comments on Every Dove Has Its Day

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Monthly Letters

The Arbitrageur

October 29, 2026October 29, 2026

To Be Happy

September 4, 2026September 4, 2026

Hell Or High Fashion

July 3, 2026July 3, 2026

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