“It is more likely than not”…
Category: Markets
S&P Would Fall 7% In Worst-Case Trade War, Goldman Says (Don’t Ask About Any Second-Order ‘Nonlinearity’)
Let’s be clear: It is impossible to estimate the impact of an all-out trade war on equity prices.
‘Previously Unlikely Options’ Are Now On The Table: Reassessing The Odds Of China Going ‘Nuclear’
We may be moving closer to a situation where Beijing feels like it has no choice.
Did The Trump Administration Just Announce A Major Currency Escalation?
“This change puts foreign exporters on notice”.
This Bond Love Affair Is ‘Combustible’ And It ‘Could Get Weird’, Nomura’s McElligott Warns
It’s the damndest thing.Â
The Dollar Shortage Thesis Lingered, Like Stale Cigarette Smoke.
“Global trade is clearly now being dragged into the mud by a ‘vicious spiral’.”
The Fog Of (Cold) War
These are the bad times.Â
Erdogan Meets The Bear
And capital control whispers are getting louder.
Fed Minutes Underscore ‘Transitory’ Narrative, ‘Patient’ Approach
“…even if global economic and financial conditions continued to improve.”
Nomura’s Charlie McElligott Explains Why Stocks Can’t Seem To ‘Really Sell Off’
Obviously, the macro narrative is a train wreck, but…
‘Take Out Their Surveillance’: Hikvision, Dahua And Trump’s Widening Dragnet
Tightening the noose.
Trump May Blacklist Chinese Video Surveillance Colossus, Because ‘Human Rights’ Or Whatever…
A decision is expected within “weeks”.
Make ‘Miscalculation’ Great Again
The word became so ubiquitous in trade war commentary that it ceased to have any meaning.
I’ll Die Unhedged, Thank You.
They say you can’t hedge a portfolio for the end of the world.
Don’t Fight The Rate-Setters? Or Are Stocks ‘The Real Aberration’?
“The reality is”…
We’re Devolving. And The Cobblers Are Restless.
“It is time to bring this trade war to an end”.
When The Chips Are Down
Semis are now synonymous with the overarching macro narrative.
Trump-O-Nomics, Italian Style
“What I care about is a Trump-like revolution.”
Semi Rout At Risk Of Morphing Into Bloodbath As Huawei Reality Sets In
As usual, the market will be forced to deliver the bad news.
An Awkward Combination.
To the extent there are any good vibes, they aren’t likely to last.
It’s All Political These Days: Full Week Ahead Preview
Donald Trump likely won’t be in a good mood as the new week dawns.
There’s China And Then There’s ‘Everything Else’…
If you’re curious to know what US credit investors are concerned about, the answer is “China”.
Why Fed Cuts Now Would ‘Only Make Things Worse’
Just after 8:30 AM on Tuesday, Donald Trump sent his eleventh tweet of the day….
‘Tariff Man’ Versus The World
“…a toxic cocktail of misguided protectionism and tacky jingoism wrapped in faux national security concerns.”
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