This time’s different. (Narrator: It’s not.) A couple of days ago, someone sent me a
Category: Markets
Beware The Froth
Are you sharp-eyed when it comes to signs of market froth? Do you wake up
This Is Almost Surely A Bubble…
The f-cked up thing about asset bubbles is that although it’s easy enough to detect
Dollar Rebound Seen As Nascent Risk To Asset Bubbles
Do we really need those Fed cuts after all? That was the question for traders
‘Extreme 25s’ For The New ‘Roarin’ 20s’
Earlier this month, Vanguard sent me a helpful email reminder: “We noticed you’re holding cash
‘The Needle Was Threaded’
Say it with me: Financial conditions are easy. Now say it again. And again. Because
Alibaba’s 50% Rally Evokes Dangerous Phase Of Tech Hype Cycles
I’ll say it. I don’t care: The AI hype machine’s starting to look a lot
Some See Dot-Com Ghost In OpenAI-Nvidia Deal
Every week, there’s another AI capex boom story. Usually two or three. In the eyes
Gold Rush 2025
Gold. It’s had a helluva run. Croesus was really onto something. Typically, you have to
The Gin Pen
Antecedent: A vignette 12 years ago next month, I saw Christopher Nolan’s Interstellar at
Gas On The Fire: Models Say The Darndest Things
The standard line at the Fed, and certainly within the Trump administration, says monetary policy
Template: [Someone Has To Be Wrong]
Has anyone done a stocks versus bonds, “someone has to be wrong” chart lately? If
The Stock Rally, Inflation And The Midterms
Capitalism, and especially American-style capitalism post-1980, is an easy enough game to play. That’s certainly
Sky’s The Limit, Apparently
How many records is this by now? Equity records, I mean. I’ve lost count. September
Leave The Bubble Alone, Sir
Leave well enough alone. Wise words. If a bit hackneyed. I know a lot of
The Fed’s Last Stand
The Fed went the cautious route on Wednesday with a 25bps rate cut, a restrained
The Smart Money Hasn’t Been This Bullish All Year
Bullish. That’s fund managers. Or the ones who bothered to participate in BofA’s closely-watched monthly
Why Stocks Aren’t Worried About A Downshifting US Jobs Market
You don’t need me to tell you this, let alone any “chief equity strategist,” but
No More Quarterly Earnings Reports? Trump’s Had Worse Ideas.
Donald Trump has some ideas. Most of them are bad. Not all of them, though.
The Weirdest FOMC Meeting Ever, Part Deux
Amid the political melee, it’s easy to forget that there actually is a genuine (i.e.,
The Weirdest FOMC Meeting Ever, Part I
The September 2025 FOMC gathering will be a surreal experience. For markets, but also for
It’s Quiet. Too Quiet.
“It’s quiet,” as the clichéd allusion to imminent danger begins. “Too quiet.” I talked about
Bad News Is Good News (Double Dovish Whammy)
The good news for stocks it that the data’s bad. How many times have we
Stock Bubble Metric Hits New Record In Nod To Inequality Spiral
US equities came into Friday looking for a second consecutive weekly gain, a fifth in
Larry Hits The Jackpot
Larry Ellison made something like $120 billion by lunchtime on Wednesday. How’d you do? I
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