“Iron ore demand is waning, which, against backdrop of near-record/record inventories and aggressive Chinese and seaborne supply, paints a nightmarish picture”…
Category: fomc
Fed Statement Redline, Word Cloud
Take it to your local palm reader.
The Going Rate For Being “A Bloody” Bitch Is Now €100 Billion
Yeah, so it turns out that exiting the European Union is probably going to be
Like Trump, Janet Yellen Is Preparing Ill-Advised “Preemptive Strikes”
“What if progress on core PCE is more limited despite labor market overheating, and the Fed’s dual mandate dilemma persists?”
How The Fed Killed The Fed Trade
“It is often the case that simply identifying a market anomaly can eliminate it as arbitrageurs take advantage of the perceived opportunity.”
Fed, Jobs, & France: Full Week Ahead Preview
Ok, so who’s ready for next week? That’s right, today’s Sunday which means tomorrow is
Dude, Relax: Stanley Fischer Doesn’t See Any Risk Of Another Taper Tantrum
Well, I’m by no means sure that anyone cares on a lazy, post-holiday-weekend Monday, but
Bank Of America Answers Your Questions About The Fed’s Balance Sheet
I am continually amused at the extent which a question comes up – let’s say
Goldman Likes Its Fed Minutes “Mildly Hawkish,” Probability Of June Hike Still 60%
“Overall, the mildly hawkish minutes increase our confidence that balance sheet normalization will be announced this year and are also marginally supportive of a June hike.”
Fed Minutes: Full Breakdown
In the lead up to the release of the Fed minutes, stocks were buoyant as
Albert Edwards Warns: “Fed Tightening Cycles Almost Always End In Recession”
“Collapsing bank lending growth is signalling that something is amiss and the Fed should stop raising rates, but I expect rapidly rising wage inflation will push the Fed into overkill. Fed tightening cycles almost always end in recession and this time will be no exception.”
Lacker Resigns From Fed
“Jeff Lacker, Richmond Fed president, says he is resigning effective today after improperly disclosing confidential Fed information, NY Times said in tweet.”
Trader Warns On Fed: “No One Knows How This Is Going To Work”
“No one knows how this is going to work in practice, let alone what it will do to markets.”
Jobs, Minutes, Xi & The Juiceman: Your Full Week Ahead Preview
Welcome to the first quarter of the rest of your life. Q2 marks markets’ first
What Is The Fed Thinking? One Bank Answers
Q: Is the Fed more hawkish than the market assumes? A: Yes.
As Treasury Yields Fall, Ask Yourself: How Long Are They Going To Let This Go On?
This seems like a good time to remind you that not everyone is buying the
“Politics Vs. Policy”: Deutsche Bank’s Resident Genius Warns Of “Binary Outcomes”
“Depending on the interplay of politics and policy — degree of political resolve and the Fed actions — we could see two distinct paths of resolution of the existing tensions in the mid- or long-run. “
These Are The Fed’s Options To Avoid Another Taper Tantrum
” The 2013 “taper tantrum†also provides a reminder that the impact of balance sheet policy on financial conditions is uncertain and could be larger than our baseline estimate. We doubt the impact would be as large today—in 2013 markets misunderstood tapering as implying earlier rate hikes, whereas today markets would likely view earlier tapering as implying later hikes— but the risk is worth considering”
Sunday Humor? “One Good Reason To Hike Rates Is That It Makes It Easier To Cut Rates”
Boy, oh boy. We’ve really had to recalibrate the way we think about things in
One Bank Warns: “Markets Are Too Sanguine,” Fed Hikes Now More Likely
As noted on Thursday, there’s a tug-of-war developing between two competing narratives on US Treasurys. Here’s
Finally Friday: Oil Looks For Weekly Gain; EM, Euro Surge; Merkel Meets America’s Useful Idiot
Well, it’s quiet out there as an exceptionally eventful week (finally) winds down. As we
A Good Bottle Of Scotch Would Be Nice: Making Sense Of Market Nonsense
Thank God for four months of sobriety because the old Heisenberg would have been at the bottom of a good bottle of scotch right now…
China Slams “Selfish” Fed Hike, Warns Emerging Markets Still “Naked” At Low Tide
“In fact, for the United States, the dollar as the reserve currency of the biggest dividend, is the world can “cut leek” or cut wool. The US economy to weather the storm, the Fed will raise interest rates, a huge siphon effect to the dollar back, which is the first round of cutting cash, the US economy to weather, Second round cut wool.”
Trader: “Much More To Come” For Treasury Rally, Dollar Slump
“Everything about this meeting that could surprise dovishly, managed to do so. U.S. yields and the dollar have much further to fall as a result.”
Albert Edwards: Stock Market “Cannot Conceive” Of A Fed That Would Let S&P “Suffer Any Serious Damage”
“One reason why the market doesnÂ’t believe the Fed dots is that investors cannot conceive of Fed tightening to the point that it causes the stockmarket any serious damage.”
A Good News Type Of Day
Well damned if this wasn’t a good news type of day. We’d wager the only people
Mission Accomplished? Fed “Prevents A Hawkish Misinterpretation”
With the Fed having pulled off what looks like a Goldilocks hike, crushing Treasury shorts
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