“The guild is unwise to treat financial markets as some beast to be tamed, cub to be coddled, or market to be manipulated. Too many policymakers appear in thrall to financial markets, and financial markets are in thrall to policymakers, but only one of them will get the last word.”
Category: fomc
Dollar, Yields Jump As WSJ Says Trump Met With Warsh On Fed Job
“President Donald Trump and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin met with Kevin Warsh on Thursday to discuss his potential nomination as the next Federal Reserve chairman.”
Transparency: The Dark Side
Ok, who’s ready to take another look behind the “fourth wall?”
‘Tell That To Rain Man’
“Either way, you gotta be super smart to run a country and sell vol. buddy, okay? It’s not easy.”
What The Heck Is Goin’ On?
“The truth of the matter is that the market doesn’t know how to interpret the Fed.”
1 Million.
“It’s not crazy”…
In 2020, It All Goes ‘Horribly Right’
“So hang in there, volatility longs. Only three more years ’til it all goes horribly right!”
Goldman Answers All Of Your Questions About The September Fed Meeting
Q: Will the FOMC hike the funds rate in December?
A: Yes, probably.
La, La, La.
Finally, in case you haven’t had enough of “connecting the dots” today, here’s another exercise for you…
Fed Decision: Highlights, Redline, Dots, Projections, Analysis
“Connect the dots”…
Apocalypse Now (Again).
Well for those who had their doom bunkers all prepped and ready, there’s “good” news on Tuesday – the apocalypse is back on.
‘We Fear Gold, Bonds, And Stock Prices May All Suffer A Sudden Drop’
“With the Fed’s balance sheet poised to contract and financial conditions set to tighten either steadily or abruptly, we fear gold, fixed income, and equity asset prices may suffer a sudden drop.”
Waving Goodbye To Our $4.5 Trillion Friend…
Nothing profound, just a retrospective as we wave goodbye to our $4.5 trillion friend…
Janet. Fed Preview
Good luck out there – your fate rests on the shoulders of a diminutive economist with a pixie cut…
How To Trade The Fed’s Big Announcement And Why There Won’t Be A ‘Tantrum’
Given the well-choreographed and gradual adjustment, we expect that asset markets will avoid another ‘taper tantrum.'”
This Is The ‘Trickiest’ Thing For Today’s Macro Traders
As Bloomberg’s Cameron Crise notes, this is “a particularly acute issue for currency and bond traders,” but given the fact that the fate of the risk rally depends in no small part on whether policymakers exhibit an “appropriate” level of dovishness as they attempt to normalize, one could well argue that it’s even more “acute” for equity investors, especially considering the fact that the retail variety isn’t usually very informed and is thus subject to being unhedged and blindsided.
The Trump Eclipse Bottom
“I couldn’t agree more. I think Trump staring at the Solar eclipse was the bottom for his Presidency. After that, it’s all uphill. Seriously, there is so little expected of him, he is bound to outperform.”
July Fed Minutes: Highlights And Summary
Although several participants were prepared to announce a starting date for the program at the current meeting, most preferred to defer that decision until an upcoming meeting while accumulating additional information on the economic outlook and developments potentially affecting financial markets.”
Presenting: A Crazy Week In Charts
Ok, well this was an interesting week…
A Dovish Fed Day In Charts
So “dovish” it was, or at least “dovish” was the market’s read on the Fed
Yields Fall Sharply As Treasurys Underpinned By Block Trade Amid ‘Wiggle Room’ Talk
“The descriptor ‘relatively’ gives policy makers some wiggle room in the event the labor market, inflation data, or possibly a debt ceiling crisis, gives the FOMC cold feet in September.”
Fed Decision: Full Highlights, Redline Statement
Fed Says Balance-Sheet Unwind To Start ‘Relatively Soon’
‘Well What If There Is No Tomorrow?’: Fed, Kushner, And Full Week Ahead Preview
Ok, it’s Sunday evening at HR, and you know what that means…
Fed Minutes: Key Points And Highlights
Read them, parse them, take them to your local palm reader…
Jobs Report, Chilled Urine, And Kashkari’s Rib Roast: Full Week Ahead Preview
If you were following along last week, then you already know what to look for
About That Fed “Policy Mistake”…
“The thesis that the Fed has made a policy error would seem to imply two claims: that the Fed’s hawkish stance has led to excessive tightening in financial conditions, and that this in turn has caused the economy to slow more than intended. Neither of these has happened.”
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