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Category: europe
Here’s How The French Polls Will Influence Central Banks This Week
“Following a “disruptive†election outcome, however, the market may expect a more accommodative tone from the ECB, and the Riksbank is likely to announce an extension of its QE programme that is due to end in June.”
Full Week Ahead Preview: Here’s “What To Watch” After France Votes
“We’ve heard comment running the gamut from “everyone is petrified†to “should be a happy time for risk.â€
“You’re Gonna Frighten People” – Bill Murray Does Frexit
“That’s because it’s the first time I’ve seen it, sir.”
Dear FX Traders: Do Not Start Fucking With Thomas Jordan Tomorrow
Earlier we noted that the ECB is prepared to step in with emergency liquidity in
Knife Edge: ECB Readies For Sunday Emergency, One Analyst Says “Keep Your Head”
“If there should be problems for specific French banks liquidity-wise, then the ECB has the … ELA, Emergency Liquidity Assistance, but we don’t expect of course any special movements.”
Friday Night Reading From Goldman: Here’s What Clients Are Talking About
After a one-week holiday hiatus, Goldman’s David Kostin and crew are back with their weekly
Here’s What’s Changed: “Markets Might Not Have To Wait Two Weeks To Sell Off”
It’s probably safe to say we’ve reached something that approximates “peak” French election analysis on Wall
Is Another “Whatever It Takes” Moment Just Around The Corner?
“If markets turn more negative on the possibility of deposit flights out of the French banking system or on Italian BTPs and banks, the currency can fall more in the absence of a decisive response from the ECB. But, if the ECB were to show a strong hand in the market, buying sovereign debt, this perception could change.”
Trader: “Be Wary Of People Who Say ‘That’s That'”
“But however sanguine your base case is for the outcome, the shock risks are real here and now, as well as from what any of the outcomes will imply.”
French Fries Protip: Don’t Worry About The Second Round, Worry About The First
“Melenchon now has a genuine chance of reaching the second round and, in purely markets terms, he would be as bad, if not worse, for French and European assets. Crucially, polls suggest that if Emmanuel Macron stumbles, the leftist would beat both Le Pen and Francois Fillon in a second-round runoff.”
“OPEC Has A Deal!” Buy Euros! Wait, There’s A French Election? Welcome To Thursday.
Let’s start with oil real quick, because there are some notable headlines on Thursday morning.
Chart Of The Day: “It’s Now Higher Than Brexit And Lehman”
“It is now higher than during Brexit, the Euro-area crisis and GFC levels which means demand for equity hedges has increased materially relative to supply among investors.”
SocGen’s Kit Juckes Is “Back From The Alps”: Here’s His Quick Pocket Guide To An Uncertain Market
The tough thing about a market dominated by geopolitical concerns is that geopolitics is country- or at least region-specific. There’s nuance, idiosyncrasies, thousands of years of history peculiar to this country or that, religious undercurrents, etc., etc. You have to take all of that into account when trying to make sense of markets in the context of multiple geopolitical powder kegs.
Is This Over Yet? “If Ever I Needed A Long Weekend, It’s Right Now”
“The hardest challenge of the day may well be not clock- watching. But while you may have been stopped out more than once this week at least you won’t have tenuous positions when they release big numbers tomorrow with the market shut.”
“All’s Well That Doesn’t End In A Giant Mushroom Cloud”
Well, you know what they say, “all’s well that doesn’t end in a giant mushroom
Goldman: The Gas Wars Are Coming And “Russia’s Grip On Europe” Is Slipping
“We believe that we are likely to see a similar response from low-cost producers to that seen in the oil market to the rise of shale production. OPEC, which has been limiting its production for a long period of time, decided to take on the shale producers in 2014, ramping up its output in a bid to force shale producers to reduce their investment and output. This eventually occurred in 2016.”
Trader: Shut That Lyin’ Mouth And “Get ‘Em While They’re Hot”
“Too many commentators have fallen into the “everything is binary†trap and decided that if you assume each event will end badly, there’s material to turn out a good rant”
“Something Happened After The Crisis” Deutsche Bank Settles An Important Debate
“Even more striking, however, is the twisting in the curve: the euro became far more sensitive to the very front-end of the curve”…
#Thiswasabadidea: Amid All Kinds Of War, Janet Yellen Takes To Twitter To Calm Nervous Markets
Oh what a difference three days and one Dudley makes. See, you (and a whole
“Hold My Beer While I Meet Xi.” And Everything Else You Need To Know On Thursday
It’s Thursday, which means today’s Donald Trump gets to look the Donald Trump who refused to
Spot The Moment Mario Draghi Opened His Mouth
Thursday morning chart challenge…
Watch Those Minutes. ADP Ahoy! Le Pen Loses Her Sh*t. And More On A Fun Wednesday
“Let’s not forget where we’re coming from,†he shouted, struggling to be heard over his rival. “You have been repeating the same lies for 40 years — those your father used to tell.â€
Volatility Collapses (Again) As Investors Cling To Goldilocks Outlook On Brexit Wednesday
It’s quiet out there. Well, except for that whole UK officially leaving the EU thing.
Mind The Cross-Atlantic “Gaps”: Your Week Ahead Preview
Earlier, we talked a bit about Donald Trump’s waning political capital and the extent to
These Charts Say We May Be Long Overdue For A “Flight To Safety” Episode
As explained in these pages exhaustively, last month’s “Holy Schatz” moment that saw the front
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