2022 was unambiguously bad for bonds. You might say laughably bad, assuming you can find
Category: economy
Four-Step Program
If you ask highly qualified professionals, many of whom probably spent the rough equivalent of
For America’s Small Businesses, ‘Rough Times Ahead’
For the tenth straight month, US small business optimism loitered below the half-century average. I
US Housing Bubble: Something’s Gotta Give
“Way” back on October 28, while responding to comments on an article documenting a 31%
Where US Jobs Weren’t In October
Perhaps just as interesting as where the jobs were last month, is where the jobs
Jobs Report Cements Lofty Fed Ambitions
The US economy added 261,000 jobs in October, the government said Friday. That was far
US Economy Produces Another ‘Since 1982’ Moment
For the first time since 1982, labor productivity in the US has fallen for three
Mighty US Services Sector Stares Down ‘Challenges’
Hot on the heels of a cool read on US factory activity, markets were treated
UK Faces Unimaginably Cruel Two Years, BoE Forecasts Suggest
The Bank of England on Thursday hiked rates by 75bps. It was a landmark moment.
Really Strong, Really Uneven
Despair, dear friends. Despair. US private sector employers added more jobs last month than any
‘Soft Landing’ Hopes Electrocuted By Million-Volt JOLTS Beat
Crucial labor market data released a day ahead of the Fed’s November policy meeting suggested
Good News, Bad News And Vice Versa
US factory activity is on the verge of contracting. That’s the bad news. The good
It’s Bad In Europe
Surprise! European inflation printed ahead of estimates for the sixth consecutive month. Consumer prices likely
Why Goldman Thinks The Fed May Hike Past February
Notwithstanding an inevitable “step-down” in the pace, Jerome Powell’s Fed may find itself compelled to
Labor Of Dove
In addition to Jerome Powell’s all-important post-FOMC press conference, markets will grapple in the days
What To Expect From Jerome Powell’s All-Important Presser
Jerome Powell needs to balance three considerations at the November FOMC meeting. Most obviously, there’s
Pivot Buzz Looses Dangerous Animal Spirits
“It’s certainly bold from a timing perspective,” Nomura’s Charlie McElligott said. He was referring to
Bad Pivot Optics, And A Harsh Word On Japan
To be fair, there won’t likely be an identifiable all-clear moment for inflation — no
Blame Big Oil
26 months ago, almost to the day, the financial pages were awash with news of
Housing Crash Pending
The last of this week’s key housing market data was dastardly. Maybe that’s hyperbole. I’ll
Between Two Recessions
The US consumer is resilient. Or at least that’ll be the narrative until there’s conclusive
Impossibly Wild 2022 Sets Up Near Certainty For 2023
Some believe the subtle shift in central bank behavior witnessed over the past month means
‘Recession Over’ Jokes Mask Weaker US Economy
Rejoice. The US has exited recession. There’s some sarcasm in there. Don’t miss it. After
Is Canada’s Monetary Policy Hopelessly Politicized?
You need the nuance. It’s critical. Hold that thought. The Bank of Canada underwhelmed markets
New US Home Prices Reaccelerate As Mortgage Rates Top 7%
New home sales held up better than expected in the US last month, data out
Pace Of US Home Price Gains Falls Most Ever. Again
The Fed’s efforts to pop a housing bubble they helped facilitate are working. The pace
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